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whitepaper/Cosmology/supernovacosmology.tex

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@@ -67,22 +67,22 @@ \subsection{Introduction}
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On the other hand, the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) aspect will make the LSST survey
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the first to scan a very large area of the sky for SNe. SNe that are detected
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and well characterized by the WFD will provide
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and well characterized by the WFD will provide
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\begin{itemize}
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\item a large, well-calibrated low redshift sample ($z \lesssim 0.1$) to replace/supplement the current set of low redshift supernovae from a mixture of surveys. Such a large, clean low redshift sample is crucial in {\emph{providing a longer lever arm for the determination of cosmological parameters from supernovae.}}
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\item a low and medium redshift ($z \lesssim 0.8$ and peaking at $z \sim 0.4$ ) sample spanning large areas of
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the sky and therefore with the ability of {\emph{tracing large scale structure}} in a novel way, particularly due to
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the inclusion of estimates radial distances. This will be possible by combining redshift estimates from supernova light
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curves in conjunction with photometric redshifts from host galaxies. Such a sample could also be used to probe the
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\item a low and medium redshift ($z \lesssim 0.8$ and peaking at $z \sim 0.4$ ) sample spanning large areas of
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the sky and therefore with the ability of {\emph{tracing large scale structure}} in a novel way, particularly due to
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the inclusion of estimates radial distances. This will be possible by combining redshift estimates from supernova light
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curves in conjunction with photometric redshifts from host galaxies. Such a sample could also be used to probe the
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{\emph{isotropy of the late time universe.}}
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\item This large sample of SNe will also enable further sharpening of our understanding of the properties of the SN population of both Type Ia and core-collapse SNe (see \autoref{sec:transients:SNtransients}). Aside from the science described in \autoref{sec:transients:SNtransients}, this understanding will also be extremely important to the goal of SN cosmology from LSST. When selecting supernovae satisfying specific criteria from observations in magnitude limited surveys, a lack of understanding of the population properties leads to selection biases in SNIa cosmology as well as the steps in photometric classification~\cite{2017ApJ...836...56K,2016ApJ...822L..35S}.
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\item This large sample of SNe will also enable further sharpening of our understanding of the properties of the SN population of both Type Ia and core-collapse SNe (see \autoref{sec:transients:SNtransients}). Aside from the science described in \autoref{sec:transients:SNtransients}, this understanding will also be extremely important to the goal of SN cosmology from LSST. When selecting supernovae satisfying specific criteria from observations in magnitude limited surveys, a lack of understanding of the population properties leads to selection biases in SNIa cosmology as well as the steps in photometric classification~\cite{2017ApJ...836...56K,2016ApJ...822L..35S}.
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The WFD SN Ia
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sample will dramatically increase the size of the sample available to
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train such an empirical model, as well as understand the probability of
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deviations and scatter from this model. Aside from issues like
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calibration which need to be addressed separately, a larger sample of
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such well measured SNe is probably the only way to address `systematics'
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due to deviations from the empirical model.
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due to deviations from the empirical model.
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\end{itemize}
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%The anticipated WFD sample can
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%be thought of as consisting of two components: the low-redshift sample
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Because LSST will discover significantly more SNe than can be spectroscopically confirmed,
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photometric classification of supernova type from multi-band light curves is crucial. While cosmology
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with a photometric SNe sample with contamination from core collapse SNe is possible (see for
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example
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example
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\citet{Kunz2007,Newling2011,Hlozek2012,Knights2013,Bernstein2012,Gjergo2013,Campbell2013,Rubin2015,Jones2016})
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,
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these methods still benefit from accurate class probabilities from classification algorithms. To
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\begin{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/supernova/fig_309_2ndYear}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/supernova/fig_744_2ndYear}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/supernova/fig_309_2ndYear.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/supernova/fig_744_2ndYear.pdf}
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\includegraphics[height=0.2\textheight]{figs/supernova/loc_309_744.pdf}
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\caption{Example of the cadence in the 2nd season in a WFD Field
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(fieldID 309) (top-panel) and a Deep Drilling Field (fieldID 744)
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discussed in \autoref{sec:\secname:targets}.
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This metric is a proxy for the potential for a supernova to be detected
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during its lifetime by the set of images taken in different bands by LSST. The actual
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detection of SN during LSST is likely to use more stringent criteria, leading to
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detection of SN during LSST is likely to use more stringent criteria, leading to
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smaller numbers of supernovae in order to deal with possibly large numbers of false positives in detection. A larger
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number of images taken at a time when the supernova is bright enough increases the
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probability of detection. Technically, assuming that a single detection in any of the images containing
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Separating supernovae from other detected transients is being considered in
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\autoref{chp:transients}. Here we concern ourselves with problem of classifying subclasses of
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SNe. Multiple techniques have been proposed to solve this problem \citep{Frieman2008,sako2008, kessler2010b,
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SNe. Multiple techniques have been proposed to solve this problem \citep{Frieman2008,sako2008, kessler2010b,
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ishida2012, sako2014} and it is not yet clear how the
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relative success of these techniques are affected by observing strategy. Work is ongoing to use the
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multifaceted, machine learning pipeline developed in \citet{Lochner2016} to compare alternative
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observing strategies. As this pipeline employs a variety of different feature extraction and machine learning
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techniques, it is ideal to investigate the effect of observing strategy on the supernova classification. The exact
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techniques, it is ideal to investigate the effect of observing strategy on the supernova classification. The exact
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metric used to determine the efficacy of the classification depends
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on the exact problem at hand. For producing a general purpose, well-classified set of all types of
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supernovae (for example, to study supernova population statistics), one could use the AUC metric
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with better training samples and understanding of underlying
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correlations of SN Ia properties and their environments. We compute a
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quality metric for each SN Ia as the ratio of the square of the
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intrinsic dispersion to variance of the distance indicator from the supernova.
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intrinsic dispersion to variance of the distance indicator from the supernova.
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$$ QM = 0.05^2/\sigma^2_{\mu}.$$ If our sample had a perfect discovery rate, and good classification (for example if we had spectroscopic classification), the uncertainty on
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cosmological parameters would be entirely due to this quality metric and would be expected to scale with the quality metric as
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cosmological parameters would be entirely due to this quality metric and would be expected to scale with the quality metric as
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$$\frac{1}{\sigma} \sim \sqrt{\sum{\frac{1.0}{1.0 + 1.0 / QM}}}$$
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where the sum is over the SNe in the sample.
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% \item[Q1:] {\it Does the science case place any constraints on the
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% tradeoff between the sky coverage and coadded depth? For example, should
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% the sky coverage be maximized (to $\sim$30,000 deg$^2$, as e.g., in
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% Pan-STARRS) or the number of detected galaxies (the current baseline
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% Pan-STARRS) or the number of detected galaxies (the current baseline
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% of 18,000 deg$^2$)?}
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%
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% \item[A1:] ...
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\item[Q1:] {\it Does the science case place any constraints on the
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tradeoff between the sky coverage and coadded depth? For example, should
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the sky coverage be maximized (to $\sim$30,000 deg$^2$, as e.g., in
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Pan-STARRS) or the number of detected galaxies (the current baseline
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Pan-STARRS) or the number of detected galaxies (the current baseline
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of 18,000 deg$^2$)?}
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\item[A1:] For supernova observations, the most important aspect is cadence: we need a

whitepaper/SolarSystem/SolarSystem_AsteroidColors.tex

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\label{sec:\secname:analysis}
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/kraken_1043_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/kraken_1043_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\\
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1281_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1282_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1281_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1282_ColorDetermination_i-z_u-g_r-i_g-r_color_tno_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\caption{Fraction of the sample population with the potential for
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color measurements in various bands, as a function of $H$ magnitude
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for TNOs for simulated surveys \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence},

whitepaper/SolarSystem/SolarSystem_AsteroidLightCurves.tex

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\label{sec:\secname:analysis}
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_LightcurveInversion_neo_tno_mba_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1282_LightcurveInversion_neo_tno_mba_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_LightcurveInversion_neo_tno_mba_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1282_LightcurveInversion_neo_tno_mba_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\caption{Fraction of the sample population with the potential for
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lightcurve inversion, as a function of $H$ magnitude for NEOs, MBAs
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and TNOs, for simulated surveys \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} and \opsimdbref{db:NEOwithVisitQuads}.

whitepaper/SolarSystem/SolarSystem_CometActivity.tex

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likelihood of activity occurring near perihelion.
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_mba_Activity_time}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_mba_Activity_period}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_mba_Activity_time.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_mba_Activity_period.pdf}
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\caption{Likelihood of detecting activity or outgassing for MBAs, for
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a single event lasting a given number of days (left) or an event
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potentially repeating for a given fraction of the period (right).

whitepaper/SolarSystem/SolarSystem_Discovery.tex

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statistical noise.
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_DiscoveryChances_tno_mba_neo_10_year_3_pairs_in_15_nights_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_tno_mba_neo_10_year_3_pairs_in_15_nights_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_DiscoveryChances_tno_mba_neo_10_year_3_pairs_in_15_nights_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_tno_mba_neo_10_year_3_pairs_in_15_nights_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\caption{Left: Number of discovery chances as a function of H
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discovery - 2 visits per night within 90 minutes, repeated for 3
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Figure~\ref{completeness_changes}.
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/kraken_1043_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH} \\
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1281_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1282_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/kraken_1043_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf} \\
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1281_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=3.3in]{figs/solarsystem/enigma_1282_CumulativeCompleteness_pairs_20_4_quads_3_30_3_30_triplets_3_30_pairs_3_15_pairs_nights_in_neo_year_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\caption{Cumulative completeness for an NEO population, given
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different sets of discovery criteria, for the \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence}, \opsimdbref{db:NoVisitPairs},
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\opsimdbref{db:NEOswithVisitTriplets},
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population, in Figure~\ref{completeness_time}.
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=2in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_neo_CompletenessOverTime_22_time}
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\includegraphics[width=2in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_mba_CompletenessOverTime_20_time}
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\includegraphics[width=2in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_tno_CompletenessOverTime_8_time}
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\includegraphics[width=2in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_neo_CompletenessOverTime_22_time.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=2in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_mba_CompletenessOverTime_20_time.pdf}
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\includegraphics[width=2in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_tno_CompletenessOverTime_8_time.pdf}
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\caption{Completeness as a function of time, for NEO, MBA and TNO
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populations. The completeness increases rapidly for the first few
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years, then increases more slowly. The NEO completeness rises more

whitepaper/SolarSystem/SolarSystem_OrbitalAccuracy.tex

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\label{sec:\secname:analysis}
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=6in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_ObsArc_neo_tno_mba_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[width=6in]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_ObsArc_neo_tno_mba_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\caption{Mean observational arc length, in years, for NEO, MBA and TNO
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populations as a function of $H$ magnitude.
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\label{obsarc}}

whitepaper/SolarSystem/SolarSystem_PHA.tex

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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{figure}[th]
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%\vskip -1.1in
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\includegraphics[angle=0,width=0.49\hsize:,clip]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_DifferentialCompleteness_PHA_3_pairs_in_15_nights_Years_1_to_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[angle=0,width=0.49\hsize:,clip]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_PHA_3_pairs_in_15_nights_Years_1_to_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH}
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\includegraphics[angle=0,width=0.49\hsize:,clip]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_DifferentialCompleteness_PHA_3_pairs_in_15_nights_Years_1_to_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\includegraphics[angle=0,width=0.49\hsize:,clip]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_PHA_3_pairs_in_15_nights_Years_1_to_10_MOOB_ComboMetricVsH.pdf}
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\caption{The PHA completeness for \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence}, as a function of the object's absolute
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\includegraphics[angle=0,width=0.49\hsize:,clip]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_NEO_and_PHA_Cumulative_Completeness}
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\includegraphics[angle=0,width=0.49\hsize:,clip]{figs/solarsystem/minion_1016_CumulativeCompleteness_NEO_and_PHA_Cumulative_Completeness.pdf}
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\caption{%
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Comparison of the cumulative NEO and PHA completeness for the baseline cadence

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