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Estimation

Estimation is the synthesis of information and experience for anticipating effort. At a given phase of a project it is appropriate to estimate differently based on the amount of available information. Estimate at the right levels at the right time.

Levels of Estimation

  • Project - Estimating at a project level is inherently less accurate than estimating at other levels, and is typically used for high level planning.
  • Epic - T-Shirt size estimates serve well for epics, figures should not typically be less than a day or more than 2 weeks. Something less than a few days might be a story, something more than a few weeks might be multiple epics.
  • Story - This is the optimal level at which to estimate--stories should have sufficient information to make reasonable assertions about how long the work will take.
  • Task - Optional but completely useful. Employed to facilitate thinking through software design and to improve story estimates.

Planning Poker

This is a consensus based estimation technique that requires several contributors evaluate a story and give estimates simultaneously (independently from others). The unique game like approach makes this a fast and fun exercise.

How it works:

  • Present the story
    Someone provides a brief explanation of the story, presenting requirements and comps to the group.
  • Question and Answer
    Participants ask the presenter for clarifications on requirements or expose unknowns around the story. If questions don't stop it's an indication that the story is not mature enough to be estimated.
  • Participants estimate
    Each participant independently thinks through the requirements and presents their estimate simultaneously--this prevents influencing others' estimates.
  • High/low outliers explain estimate
    There will typically be an average estimate, and outliers to that average. Outliers explain to the group what considerations went into their number.
  • Negotiate new number or vote again
    After discussion, the group or outlier estimators may defending their numbers or acquiesce to an agreed number. It is equally permissible to revote entirely.