Deep Tech Market Entry Decisions Through the Lens of Uncertainty
Authors: Alexander Myers, Mariia Kozlova, and Julian Scott Yeomans
Source: Kozlova, M., & Yeomans, J. S. (Eds.). (2024). Sensitivity Analysis for Business, Technology, and Policymaking: Made Easy with Simulation Decomposition (SimDec). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003453789
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
📖 Read full Chapter 7: Ch7.pdf
Deep tech companies often face radical uncertainty: they not only need to choose the right market, but also make crucial decisions about technology development paths.
This chapter presents a practical framework — the Technology Opportunity Navigator — supported by SimDec, to help early-stage ventures explore and prioritize market-entry options under uncertainty.
The chapter is built around a realistic startup: MicroBioX, a company developing microbiome-based skincare using bioinformatics to discover beneficial prebiotics.
Their challenge:
- They have three distinct technology assets, each potentially useful across nine market opportunities.
- These include applications like cosmetics, therapeutic creams (e.g. eczema/psoriasis), and insect repellents.
- Each pathway requires different levels of validation, time, investment, and risk.
This is the classic deep tech dilemma: too many options, not enough resources.
To guide the choice, the authors adapt the well-known Market Opportunity Navigator (MON) tool and extend it with:
- Six new technology evaluation criteria (e.g., development risks, time, potential value)
- Ranges instead of point estimates, capturing real-world uncertainty
- A simulation-based model that connects technology choices with market outcomes
A Monte Carlo simulation was run 30,000 times to reflect the full range of possibilities, and SimDec was used to reveal which factors most influence success.
Three visual perspectives were used to understand the results:
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By Market Opportunity:
- DC Cosmetics Light and Corp Cosmetics Light were the most attractive options overall.
- Uncertainty was lower for cosmetics than medical or repellents.
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By Asset Combination:
- The Skin Barrier Repair asset was the most valuable, but also showed greater variation.
- Insect Repellent had the lowest and most uncertain score.
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By Key Drivers:
- The most influential criteria were:
- M21 – Implementation obstacles
- T12 – Total market volume
- Best outcomes came from low implementation obstacles + high market size.
- The most influential criteria were:
SimDec provided a clear prioritization strategy:
- Start with DC Cosmetics Light, then consider Corp Cosmetics Light
- Focus development on the Skin Barrier Repair asset
- Use SimDec as an iterative decision support tool, updating the model as new insights and data emerge
The analysis helped MicroBioX visually balance opportunity vs. risk, and identify which choices really move the needle.
- Many early-stage ventures struggle with paralysis by analysis when facing multiple uncertain paths.
- This chapter shows how combining multi-criteria decision-making, simulation, and SimDec visualizations can cut through complexity.
- Especially useful for investor presentations, strategic pivots, or resource allocation.
🔗 SimDec toolkits and open-source models:
github.com/Simulation-Decomposition
Based on Chapter 7 of Sensitivity Analysis for Business, Technology, and Policymaking
© Alexander Myers, Mariia Kozlova, and Julian Scott Yeomans, 2024 — CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.
This summary is an independent derivative work created for educational and indexing purposes, not affiliated with the original publisher.