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Extended Summary

Chapter 8. Uncertainty Considerations in Life Cycle Assessment of COVID-19 Masks

Single-Use Versus Reusable

Authors: Natalia Vinitskaia, Anna Zaikova, Mariia Kozlova, and Julian Scott Yeomans
Source: Kozlova, M., & Yeomans, J. S. (Eds.). (2024). Sensitivity Analysis for Business, Technology, and Policymaking: Made Easy with Simulation Decomposition (SimDec). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003453789
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

📖 Read full Chapter 8: Ch8.pdf

What’s the greener choice: reusable or disposable face masks?

This chapter tackles a question that became urgent during the COVID-19 pandemic:
Which type of mask—single-use or reusable—is better for the environment?
The answer depends on many uncertain factors: how masks are transported, how they’re disposed of, how often people wash or replace them.

Using Simulation Decomposition (SimDec), the authors run a life cycle assessment (LCA) comparing the global warming potential (GWP) of:

  • Single-use medical masks (polypropylene)
  • Reusable 3D-printed PLA masks with replaceable filters

Why traditional LCA methods fall short

LCA is great at estimating total environmental impact, but it often:

  • Treats assumptions as fixed
  • Hides complexity behind single “best guess” scenarios
  • Fails to show how combinations of behavior (e.g. washing frequency, travel mode) shape results

This chapter shows how SimDec brings LCA to life by making uncertainty visible and decision-relevant.

How the model works

  • The functional unit is 180 days of personal protection
  • For single-use masks: 360–1080 units used
  • For reusable masks: 1–3 masks + filters and cleaning

Monte Carlo simulations were run with 10,000 iterations per mask type, modeling realistic variations in:

  • Number of uses
  • Filter replacement
  • Disinfection frequency
  • Transport mode (ship, truck, air)
  • End-of-life method (incineration or landfill)

What SimDec revealed

Single-use masks

  • Most impactful factors: number of masks used and transport method
  • Air shipping dramatically increases GWP
  • Disposal method (landfill vs. incineration) matters, but less than transport

Reusable masks

  • Top influencers: frequency of use, filter changes, disinfection practices
  • Wide uncertainty range — they can be better or worse than single-use depending on behavior
  • Low-impact usage requires low replacement rates and minimal washing

Combined comparison

  • Mask type and use frequency are the strongest drivers of climate impact
  • The same GWP can result from very different behavior combinations
  • SimDec shows where greener choices depend not just on the product, but on the person using it

Why this matters for policy and personal decisions

  • Avoids oversimplified “this product is better” conclusions
  • Supports nuanced environmental policy that considers transport infrastructure, consumer behavior, and waste systems
  • Encourages more flexible and context-aware decisions — whether by hospitals, consumers, or regulators

Key takeaway

Reusable masks can be better for the environment — but only when used thoughtfully.
SimDec makes that insight clear, visual, and explainable, helping users and decision-makers understand when, why, and how greener choices work.

Explore the methodology

🔗 More SimDec models and tools: github.com/Simulation-Decomposition

Attribution

Based on Chapter 8 of Sensitivity Analysis for Business, Technology, and Policymaking
© Natalia Vinitskaia, Anna Zaikova, Mariia Kozlova, and Julian Scott Yeomans, 2024 — CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.
This summary is an independent derivative work created for educational and indexing purposes, not affiliated with the original publisher.