chore(release): checkpoint blocked-checks issue and fail fast on stalled PR state

Author: bourgeoa

RELEASE-STATUS.md

@@ -1,7 +1,35 @@
 # Release Orchestrator - Current Status
 
-**Date:** March 19, 2026  
-**Status:** ⚠ Stable flow semantics clarified (publish-from-main objective documented)
+**Date:** March 20, 2026  
+**Status:** ⚠ PR merge blocked by required-checks initialization gap on some repos
+
+---
+
+## Checkpoint (March 20, 2026)
+
+Observed repeatedly on `SolidOS/solid-logic` release PRs (`#223`, `#224`, `#225`):
+
+```
+state=OPEN, mergeState=BLOCKED, pendingChecks=0, failingChecks=0
+GraphQL: Repository rule violations found
+2 of 2 required status checks are expected.
+```
+
+Interpretation:
+- The repo rules require checks, but those check runs are not yet materialized for the PR at the moment merge is attempted.
+- This is distinct from failing checks; it is an "expected checks not started/visible yet" condition.
+
+Mitigation now in orchestrator:
+- Retry logic for auto-merge and admin-merge paths.
+- Transient rule-violation parsing now includes `message`, `stderr`, and `stdout`.
+- New fail-fast diagnostic: if PR remains `BLOCKED` with no check entries for ~2 minutes, abort with explicit guidance instead of waiting silently.
+
+Tomorrow's investigation checklist:
+1. Inspect branch protection/ruleset in `SolidOS/solid-logic` and list exact required check names.
+2. Verify those workflows trigger on `pull_request` for `main` and for release branch naming pattern.
+3. Confirm no `paths`/`paths-ignore` filters are excluding the release PR diff.
+4. Verify required checks match current workflow job names exactly (renamed jobs can cause "expected" forever).
+5. Re-run `stable-publish` after rules/workflow alignment and confirm PR auto-merges.
 
 ---
 

scripts/release-orchestrator.js

@@ -470,6 +470,8 @@ function waitForPRMerge(repoDir, repo, headBranch, baseBranch, dryRun, options =
     const startTime = Date.now();
     let finalMergedAt = '';
     let sawAnyChecks = false;
+    let blockedNoChecksCycles = 0;
+    const blockedNoChecksLimit = 8; // ~2 minutes at 15s polling
 
     const isTransientRuleViolation = (err) => {
       const text = [
@@ -518,6 +520,12 @@ function waitForPRMerge(repoDir, repo, headBranch, baseBranch, dryRun, options =
         `  PR #${prNumber}: state=${state}, mergeState=${mergeStateStatus}, review=${reviewDecision}, pendingChecks=${pendingChecks}, failingChecks=${failingChecks}`
       );
 
+      if (mergeStateStatus === 'BLOCKED' && checks.length === 0 && pendingChecks === 0) {
+        blockedNoChecksCycles += 1;
+      } else {
+        blockedNoChecksCycles = 0;
+      }
+
       if (mergedAt) {
         finalMergedAt = mergedAt;
         break;
@@ -531,6 +539,13 @@ function waitForPRMerge(repoDir, repo, headBranch, baseBranch, dryRun, options =
         throw new Error(`PR #${prNumber} has failing required checks.`);
       }
 
+      if (blockedNoChecksCycles >= blockedNoChecksLimit) {
+        throw new Error(
+          `PR #${prNumber} stayed BLOCKED with no status checks for ${(blockedNoChecksCycles * pollInterval) / 1000}s. ` +
+          `This usually means required checks are configured but not running for this PR (workflow trigger/path filter/permissions mismatch).`
+        );
+      }
+
       // Retry requesting auto-merge once checks have started appearing.
       if (!autoMergeRequested && (pendingChecks > 0 || sawAnyChecks)) {
         try {