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tom mcandrew
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outbreak_science/chap2.ipynb

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" 3. There are 2 infectors and $p=1/20$\n",
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"3. An alternative to the Reed-Frost model is Greenwood's model. For Greenwood's, the probability of infection is equal to $p$ and not $1-(1-p)^I_{t}$ as it is in the Reed-Frost Dynamical System. That is, Greenwood's model assumes exposure to two or infectors is equivalent to exposure of a single infector. In a brief 2-3 sentences, please describe when Greenwood's model may an appropriate model of the spread of a pathogen (as opposed to the Reed-Frost model). \n",
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"4. In the section `Dynamics assumed at start of outbreak' we made assumptions about $S_{0}$ and the form of $1-(1-p)^{i_{0}}$ to arrive at an approximation solution for how an epidemic grows. To arrive at a better approximation, please recompute the dynamics at the start of an outbreak using the following, more accurate, assumptions\n",
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" \n",
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"\\begin{align}\n",
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" S_{0} &= (N-1)\\\\\n",
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" e^{x} &\\approx 1 + x + \\frac{x^{2}}{2}\\\\\n",
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" \\log(1-x) &\\approx -x -\\frac{x^{2}}{2}\n",
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"\\end{align}\n",
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"\n",
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"Your final answer will be a more complicated expression than our original assumptions that led to $Np$.\n",
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"Do you feel that the more complicated mathematical expression that you found is worth the extra computation? Why or why not? \n",
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"\n",

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