write down Bayesian network / likelihood for this model

[afredston]

not sure how ABC fits in but it would be helpful for me to write down a network diagram and associated equations for the model that I can update as we make changes (work with Jude on this)

[afredston]

I've been working on this here (should be editable by anyone with the link): https://www.overleaf.com/9361189194dhycxbxzhkgb