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Quarterly Tracking

Real-time validation of RAP macroeconomic prediction

Tracking actual debt trajectory vs predicted path (2025-2040)

Q4 2025 - BASELINE (Prediction Lock Date)

Date: November 22, 2025

Core Metrics

Metric Value Source Notes
Global Debt-to-GDP 235% IMF WEO Oct 2024, BIS Q3 2024 Public + private consolidated
Primary Deficit 3.5% of GDP IMF Fiscal Monitor 2024 Global average, non-interest spending
10-Year Yield (US) ~4.5% Bloomberg/FRED Proxy for global borrowing costs
Expected Inflation ~2.5% TIPS breakeven, surveys Market-implied
Real GDP Growth ~2.0% IMF WEO projection Global average
r - g Differential ~1.2% Calculated (4.5% - 2.5%) - 2.0% = 0.0%... wait

[Note: Need to recalculate r - g properly - should be real rate minus real growth]

Corrected r - g:

  • Real interest rate: 4.5% - 2.5% = 2.0%
  • Real GDP growth: 2.0%
  • r - g = 2.0% - 2.0% = 0.0%

This is more favorable than the 1.0-1.5% baseline assumed. Will monitor if this changes.

Effective Damping Coefficient

Fiscal Component:

  • Primary deficit: -3.5% (negative surplus)
  • Fiscal damping: -3.5% / 2.5 = -1.4

Monetary Component:

  • QE programs: Mostly ended but balance sheets not reduced
  • Policy rates: Above neutral but accommodative
  • Policy tightness index: -0.5 (mildly expansionary)
  • Monetary damping: -0.5 * 0.8 = -0.4

Political Sustainability:

  • No major austerity programs
  • Political pressure for spending (defense, climate, social programs)
  • Sustainability factor: 0.8 (could worsen)

Calculated Effective d:

d = (-1.4 + (-0.4)) * 0.8 = -1.8 * 0.8 = -1.44

Interpretation: Strongly negative damping (d ≈ -1.4), confirming runaway trajectory prediction.

Crisis Indicators

Indicator Value Status Notes
IG Bond Spreads ~120 bps 🟡 Elevated Above pre-2020 average (~100 bps)
HY Bond Spreads ~350 bps 🟡 Elevated Historical average ~300 bps
Sovereign CDS ~40 bps (US 5Y) 🟢 Normal Below crisis levels (>100 bps)
Currency Volatility Low-moderate 🟢 Normal VIX ~15, DXY stable
Emergency Measures None 🟢 Normal No capital controls, forced lending

Overall Crisis Risk: 🟢 LOW (baseline established, no immediate triggers)

Prediction Status

✅ On Track: Debt at 235%, negative damping confirmed, r - g positive (though lower than assumed)

⚠️ Note: r - g at 0.0% is more favorable than baseline (1.0-1.5%). If this persists, could delay crisis window by 1-2 years. Will monitor.

📊 Trajectory: Exponential acceleration predicted to begin 2026-2027 as debt service compounds

Q1 2026 - UPDATE

Date: [To be updated March 31, 2026]

Core Metrics

Metric Value Source Change vs Q4 2025
Global Debt-to-GDP TBD IMF WEO TBD
Primary Deficit TBD IMF Fiscal Monitor TBD
r - g Differential TBD Calculated TBD
Effective Damping (d) TBD Calculated TBD

Crisis Indicators

[To be updated]

Analysis

[Quarterly analysis comparing actual vs predicted trajectory]

Questions to Address:

  1. Has debt-to-GDP accelerated as predicted?
  2. Has policy shifted toward positive damping (austerity)?
  3. Are crisis indicators elevated?
  4. Any structural surprises (AGI breakthrough, major war, etc.)?

Q2 2026 - UPDATE

Date: [To be updated June 30, 2026]

[To be filled in Q2 2026]

Q3 2026 - UPDATE

Date: [To be updated September 30, 2026]

[To be filled in Q3 2026]

Q4 2026 - UPDATE & ANNUAL REVIEW

Date: [To be updated December 31, 2026]

Annual Summary (2026)

[Full year analysis of first year of prediction]

Key Questions:

  1. What was the trajectory over 2026?
  2. Did acceleration match prediction?
  3. What was average effective damping?
  4. Any policy shifts toward austerity?
  5. Crisis indicators: stable or rising?

Visualization

[Charts to be generated quarterly]

Actual vs Predicted Debt-to-GDP

[Chart showing:]
- Predicted trajectory (d < 0 runaway path)
- Predicted trajectory (d = 4 partial correction)
- Actual observed data points
- Crisis threshold zone (300%+)
- 85% attractor line

Effective Damping Over Time

[Chart showing:]
- Calculated d-coefficient each quarter
- Required d for convergence (10-12 line)
- Historical maximum (5-6 line)
- Trend: moving toward positive or staying negative?

Crisis Indicator Dashboard

[Chart showing:]
- Bond spreads
- Sovereign CDS
- Currency volatility
- Emergency policy measures
- Color-coded risk levels

Template for Future Updates

QX 20XX - UPDATE

Date: [Quarter end date]

Core Metrics

Metric Value Source Change vs Prior Quarter
Global Debt-to-GDP X% IMF WEO +Y pp
Primary Deficit X% IMF Fiscal Monitor +Y pp
10-Year Yield X% Bloomberg/FRED +Y bps
Expected Inflation X% TIPS/surveys +Y pp
Real GDP Growth X% IMF WEO +Y pp
r - g Differential X% Calculated +Y pp
Effective Damping (d) X Calculated +Y

Crisis Indicators

Indicator Value Status Change
IG Bond Spreads X bps 🟢/🟡/🔴 +Y bps
HY Bond Spreads X bps 🟢/🟡/🔴 +Y bps
Sovereign CDS X bps 🟢/🟡/🔴 +Y bps
Currency Volatility X 🟢/🟡/🔴 Direction
Emergency Measures Yes/No 🟢/🟡/🔴 New/Ended

Analysis

Trajectory Assessment:

  • Is actual debt tracking predicted runaway path?
  • Deviation from prediction: ±X percentage points
  • Explanation for deviation (if significant)

Policy Response:

  • Has effective damping changed?
  • Direction: More positive (austerity) or more negative (expansion)?
  • Magnitude: Significant or marginal?
  • Political context: What's driving policy?

Crisis Risk Assessment:

  • Overall risk level: 🟢 LOW / 🟡 MODERATE / 🟠 ELEVATED / 🔴 HIGH / 💀 CRITICAL
  • Which indicators are triggering?
  • Timeline: On track for 2027-2032 window?

Structural Changes:

  • Any major geopolitical events?
  • Technological breakthroughs (AGI, fusion, etc.)?
  • Policy regime changes?
  • Black swan events?

Probability Updates:

  • Hard reset 2027-2032: Still 70%? Adjust to X%
  • Soft landing: Still 20%? Adjust to X%
  • Other scenarios: New probabilities

Annual Review Template

Year 20XX - ANNUAL SUMMARY

Review Date: December 31, 20XX

Full Year Metrics

Metric Start (Q1) End (Q4) Change Annual Average
Debt-to-GDP X% Y% +Z pp Avg%
Effective Damping (d) X Y +Z Avg
r - g Differential X% Y% +Z pp Avg%

Year-over-Year Analysis

Trajectory:

  • Did debt accelerate as predicted?
  • Actual growth rate: X% per year
  • Predicted growth rate: Y% per year
  • Deviation: ±Z%

Policy Evolution:

  • Dominant policy stance: Expansionary / Neutral / Contractionary
  • Major policy shifts: [List key changes]
  • Average damping: d = X
  • Trend: Improving (→ positive) or Worsening (→ negative)?

Crisis Indicators:

  • Highest risk period: QX 20XX
  • Number of quarters with elevated indicators: X/4
  • Any emergency measures triggered? Yes/No

Prediction Assessment:

  • Confidence in 2027-2032 timeline: Increased / Stable / Decreased
  • Updated probability of hard reset: X%
  • Reasons for adjustment: [Explanation]

Black Swans:

  • Major unexpected events: [List]
  • Impact on prediction: [Analysis]

Looking Ahead:

  • Key risks for next year: [List]
  • Policy inflection points to watch: [List]
  • Potential surprises: [List]

Data Archive

All quarterly data points stored in /data/quarterly/ with timestamped files:

  • YYYY-QX-debt-to-gdp.csv
  • YYYY-QX-policy-indicators.csv
  • YYYY-QX-crisis-indicators.csv
  • YYYY-QX-calculations.csv

Ensures reproducibility and prevents data revision after the fact.

Automated Alerts

[To be implemented]

Set up automated monitoring for:

  1. Debt-to-GDP exceeds 250% → Email alert
  2. Any crisis indicator hits 🔴 RED → Email alert
  3. Effective damping turns positive (d > 0) → Email alert (policy shift!)
  4. r - g reverses (becomes negative) → Email alert (structural change!)

Next Update: Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026)

Track the experiment in real-time. The math is unforgiving.