Although his season was cut short due to injury in his final season at Vanderbilt, Aaron Nesmith displayed high volume and high accuracy shooting unlike many draft prospects I had analyzed in my database spanning from 2015-2020. Despite a historic shooting start to his season, some scouts and draft analysts had Nesmith's shooting as a question mark, as there was skepticism in whether his significant year-to-year improvement was real or a fallacy given Nesmith's shortened season (3.7 3PM per 100 possessions at 33.7% in 32 games as a freshman the year prior compared to his 6.9 3PM per 100 possessions at 52.2% in 14 games as a sophomore).
As a point of comparison, Buddy Hield, one of the most prolific 3 point shooters in college and NBA history, averaged 3.8 3PM per game at 52.0% in the first 14 games during his final year at Oklahoma, where he ended the season as the Wooden Award winner. Nesmith on a per-game basis was at 4.3 3PM at the aforementioned 52.2%.
Given this trajectory and the other positive shooting indicators (82.5% on FTs as both a freshman and sophomore), I think it is reasonable to assume that Nesmith would very likely have ended a prolonged 2019-20 season as a 40%+ three point shooter.
As of the start of the 2024-2025 season, Aaron Nesmith is a career 37.4% 3 point shooter, and just experienced his best shooting season in 2023-24 (1.9 3PM at 41.9%) after signing a 3 year, $33 million extension. Provided that his shooting ability persists at this level and complements his blossoming defensive reputation, this will likely be one of the better bargain contracts in the NBA.