Data repository for "How optimistic inflow forecasts distort dispatch, prices, and contracts in hydro-dominated power systems: evidence from Brazil"

The repository is organized around two parts of the paper:

• empirical evidence based on official Brazilian planning and implemented data;
• controlled case-study simulations data.

Paper connection

Paper component	Repository support
Section 3, "Empirical evidence of biased look-ahead in the Brazilian power system operation planning"	empirical_evidence/ contains planned NEWAVE-based data, implemented ONS operation data, plotting workbooks, and regression inputs/outputs.
Figures 1-2	NIE forecast/observation data in empirical_evidence/planned/, empirical_evidence/implemented/NIE/, and workbooks empirical_evidence/NIE.xlsm and empirical_evidence/Regression/NIE.xlsm.
Figures 3-6	Planned and implemented hydro generation, stored energy, thermal generation, spot-price workbooks and supporting CSVs under empirical_evidence/.
Table 2 and Appendix C / Table C.5 / Figure C.13	empirical_evidence/Regression/regression_analysis.jl, empirical_evidence/Regression/stored_energy_plot.xlsm, empirical_evidence/Regression/NIE.xlsm, and empirical_evidence/Regression/outputs/.
Table 3	empirical_evidence/Regression/out_of_merit_count.xlsx, supported by stored-energy and out-of-merit thermal dispatch data.
Section 4, "Controlled experiments on the effect of unbiased forecasts"	case_study/simulation_results/, case_study/operation_results/, and case_study/spot_prices/.
Figures 7-11 and Table 4	Policy simulation matrices and summary workbooks in case_study/simulation_results/, case_study/operation_results/, and case_study/spot_prices/.
Section 5, "Propagation to the forward-market layer" and Figure 12	case_study/HydroRevenue/ scripts, workbooks, and CVaR summary CSVs.

Data sources

Source class	Source/provenance
Planned operation and forecast data	Planned data files are documented as obtained from CCEE: https://www.ccee.org.br/en/web/guest/ccee. Processed planned CSVs are generated by the authors from NEWAVE outputs.
Implemented operation data	Implemented operation data are documented as obtained from ONS Open Data: https://dados.ons.org.br/. Processed implemented CSVs are generated by the authors from ONS daily or hourly files.
Controlled case-study simulation outputs	Generated by the authors' case-study model/SDDP experiments.
Plotting workbooks and derived tables	Generated by the authors from the processed datasets and simulation outputs.