One year after the Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, global trade flows have shifted. Trade data shows which countries gained, which lost – and who is footing the bill.
In this repository, you will find the methodology, data and code behind the stories that came out of this analysis.
Read the full story here: English | German | Indonesian | Portuguese (Brazil) | Russian | Spanish
Story by: Kira Schacht
We’ll look at US import data provided through ITC Trade Map to analyze:
- How overall imports to the US have changed
- Which countries have seen additional imports in various phases of the implementation, e.g.: – January to March 2025: Stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs – April to July 2025: Import substitution during between announcement (April 2) and implementation (August 7)
- Customs duties collected by the US treasury over time, collated by the Penn Wharton Budget Model
ITC Trade Map provides the monthly import volume to the US by country.
We’ll focus on the years 2022-2024 as a baseline for comparison with 2025, since 2021 imports might still have been skewed by the Covid-19 pandemic.
| Exporters | value | year | month |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 258.78 | 2022 | 1 |
| World | 244.28 | 2022 | 2 |
| World | 308.52 | 2022 | 3 |
| World | 284.40 | 2022 | 4 |
| World | 297.24 | 2022 | 5 |
| World | 297.84 | 2022 | 6 |
| World | 282.57 | 2022 | 7 |
| World | 295.63 | 2022 | 8 |
| World | 286.39 | 2022 | 9 |
| World | 293.30 | 2022 | 10 |
| World | 265.37 | 2022 | 11 |
| World | 261.63 | 2022 | 12 |
data preview, imports to the US in USD bn:
We’ll focus our analysis on the 19 countries that trade the most with the US (make up at least 1% of US imports between 2022 and 2024):
Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, Vietnam
We’ll compare total monthly US import values for 2025 to the average in
the corresponding months of 2022-2024. The results show that total
import values to the US briefly rose in early 2025, then returned to
normal. We’ll export this result to trademap_us_imports_deviation.csv.
| month | 2025 | average | deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 325.30 | 260.89 | 64.41 |
| Feb | 295.42 | 243.99 | 51.43 |
| Mar | 350.61 | 281.81 | 68.80 |
| Apr | 283.74 | 273.81 | 9.93 |
| May | 283.86 | 283.94 | -0.09 |
| Jun | 272.74 | 278.71 | -5.96 |
| Jul | 300.54 | 280.50 | 20.04 |
| Aug | 270.49 | 284.87 | -14.38 |
| Sep | 283.01 | 283.07 | -0.06 |
| Oct | 281.52 | 291.52 | -10.00 |
| Nov | 269.36 | 270.03 | -0.67 |
| Dec | 289.99 | 269.47 | 20.52 |
Q1 additional imports, in USD bn
In early 2025, anticipation of tariffs led US importers to stockpile goods from many trading partners. Focusing on the countries with more than 1% average import share to the US, we’ll show the magnitude of additional imports in Q1 2025 compared to the average of Q1 2022-2024 per country.
The result is exported to trademap_us_exporters_deviation_Q1.csv
| Exporters | Q1_2025 | Q1_average | deviation | change_percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 62.48 | 14.88 | 47.60 | 4.20 |
| Ireland | 59.73 | 19.93 | 39.81 | 3.00 |
| Mexico | 132.34 | 114.97 | 17.37 | 1.15 |
| Taiwan | 34.73 | 22.46 | 12.27 | 1.55 |
| Vietnam | 41.30 | 29.59 | 11.70 | 1.40 |
| India | 28.65 | 21.90 | 6.74 | 1.31 |
| Canada | 111.57 | 105.58 | 5.99 | 1.06 |
| Germany | 42.71 | 38.01 | 4.70 | 1.12 |
| France | 17.77 | 13.85 | 3.92 | 1.28 |
| Thailand | 18.18 | 14.65 | 3.52 | 1.24 |
Q1 additional imports, in USD bn
Between the announcement of tariffs on April 2 and their implementation in August, importers tried to shift to lower-tariff countries.
We’ll show the resulting shift in imports on a map, the data of which is
exported in trademap_us_exporters_deviation_Apr_Jul.csv
| Exporters | AJ_2025 | AJ_average | deviation | change_percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | 68.70 | 34.43 | 34.27 | 2.00 |
| Vietnam | 69.06 | 44.48 | 24.59 | 1.55 |
| World | 1140.88 | 1116.96 | 23.92 | 1.02 |
| Mexico | 179.81 | 163.54 | 16.27 | 1.10 |
| Thailand | 30.50 | 20.91 | 9.59 | 1.46 |
| India | 39.12 | 31.37 | 7.75 | 1.25 |
| Switzerland | 24.35 | 18.54 | 5.81 | 1.31 |
| Ireland | 35.36 | 29.98 | 5.38 | 1.18 |
| Malaysia | 20.66 | 17.23 | 3.43 | 1.20 |
| Indonesia | 12.90 | 10.34 | 2.56 | 1.25 |
| Chile | 8.16 | 5.90 | 2.26 | 1.38 |
| Australia | 7.87 | 5.66 | 2.21 | 1.39 |
April-July change in imports, in USD bn
For a view of the year 2025 in total, we’ll show the monthly deviation from the 2022-2024 average for all countries with at least 1% historic import share.
| month | Taiwan | Vietnam | Mexico | Thailand | India | Switzerland | Ireland | Malaysia | France |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | 16.91 | 8.82 | 5.05 | 5.44 | 1.78 | -2.52 | -3.38 | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| Oct | 13.26 | 6.32 | 5.59 | 3.51 | -0.41 | -1.24 | -3.57 | 0.12 | 0.46 |
| Nov | 11.96 | 6.73 | 4.89 | 4.21 | 0.57 | -1.17 | -3.10 | 0.77 | 1.81 |
| Jul | 10.09 | 7.22 | 5.82 | 3.23 | 2.16 | 6.51 | -2.69 | 0.90 | 0.61 |
| Jun | 8.99 | 7.06 | 3.92 | 2.70 | 1.73 | -0.20 | -1.04 | 1.04 | -0.10 |
| Aug | 8.51 | 5.02 | 3.20 | 2.37 | 1.15 | -0.71 | -2.50 | 0.19 | -0.29 |
| May | 8.27 | 5.24 | 4.72 | 1.65 | 1.30 | -1.61 | 6.22 | 0.77 | 0.16 |
| Apr | 6.93 | 5.07 | 1.81 | 2.01 | 2.57 | 1.11 | 2.90 | 0.71 | 1.36 |
| Sep | 6.28 | 5.64 | 3.51 | 3.23 | 0.18 | -0.28 | 11.59 | 0.30 | 0.08 |
| Mar | 4.65 | 4.93 | 6.34 | 1.94 | 3.81 | 12.24 | 23.48 | 0.89 | 3.00 |
| Feb | 3.91 | 3.27 | 5.47 | 0.60 | 1.96 | 15.82 | 9.20 | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| Jan | 3.71 | 3.50 | 5.56 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 19.54 | 7.12 | 0.67 | 0.49 |
Preview: Monthly deviations by country, in USD bn
pennwharton_budget_model_taxes.csv shows weekly amounts of customs
duties collected by the US, processed from the data source for
visualization.