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25 changes: 24 additions & 1 deletion references.bib
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -198,7 +198,8 @@ @article{BotvinikNezerEtAl2020
volume = {582},
number = {7810},
pages = {84-88},
year = {2020}
year = {2020},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2314-9}
}

@article{BoyceEtAl2024,
Expand All @@ -219,6 +220,17 @@ @article{BrandtEtAl2014
doi = {10.1016/j.jesp.2013.10.005}
}

@article{BreznauEtAl2022,
author = {Breznau, N. and Rinke, E. M. and Wuttke, A. and Nguyen, H. H. V. and Adem, M. and Adriaans, J. and Alvarez-Benjumea, A.},
title = {Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {119},
number = {44},
pages = {e2203150119},
year = {2022},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2203150119}
}

@article{BrodeurEtAl2024a,
author = {Brodeur, A. and Cook, N. M. and Hartley, J. S. and Heyes, A.},
title = {Do Preregistration and Preanalysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias? Evidence from 15,992 Test Statistics and Suggestions for Improvement},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1409,6 +1421,17 @@ @article{SchultzeEtAl2018
doi = {10.1002/bdm.2065}
}

@article{SilberzahnEtAl2018,
author = {Silberzahn, R. and Uhlmann, E. L. and Martin, D. P. and Anselmi, P. and Aust, F. and Awtrey, E. and Bahník, Š.},
title = {Many analysts, one data set: Making transparent how variations in analytic choices affect results},
journal = {Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science},
volume = {1},
number = {3},
pages = {337-356},
year = {2018},
doi = {10.1177/2515245917747646}
}

@article{SimmonsEtAl2011,
author = {Simmons, J. P. and Nelson, L. D. and Simonsohn, U.},
title = {False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant},
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18 changes: 18 additions & 0 deletions understanding.qmd
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Expand Up @@ -125,6 +125,24 @@ close replications more directly test the credibility of original
results, while conceptual replications that vary features of the design
are concerned with generalizability.

A related line of work isolates the analysis stage by holding the data
fixed. In so-called many-analyst studies, multiple independent teams
analyse the same dataset to test the same hypothesis, yet reach divergent
conclusions. @SilberzahnEtAl2018 had numerous teams estimate whether
football referees are more likely to give red cards to dark-skinned
players, and the teams reported a wide spread of effect estimates despite
working from identical data. @BotvinikNezerEtAl2020 observed substantial
variability when many teams tested hypotheses on a single neuroimaging
dataset, and @BreznauEtAl2022 described a “hidden universe of
uncertainty” across the many teams that analysed the same survey data.
Because the data are held constant, this variability cannot be attributed
to differences in data collection and instead reflects choices made in the
analysis pipeline, which matters for interpreting reproductions and
replications: even when the same data are reanalysed, defensible
differences in modelling decisions can change effect estimates, their
uncertainty, statistical significance, and sometimes the direction of the
substantive conclusion.

Note that @NosekErrington2020 define replication as a study “for which
any outcome would be considered diagnostic evidence about a claim from
prior research”. This can lead to issues when the original claim is not
Expand Down