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Broaden replication-rate evidence base and caveat the estimate (Ch1, #14)#42

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Broaden replication-rate evidence base and caveat the estimate (Ch1, #14)#42
LukasWallrich wants to merge 2 commits into
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content/issue-14-replication-rate-evidence

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Addresses #14. The replication-rate discussion in Chapter 1 previously rested on a single, narrow education paper (Perry et al. 2022). This PR broadens the evidence base and caveats the estimate.

Changes (background.qmd)

  • Added a short, caveated passage on replication success rates drawing on multiple large-scale projects across fields: Open Science Collaboration 2015 (psychology), Klein et al. 2014 (Many Labs), Camerer et al. 2016 (experimental economics), Camerer et al. 2018 (Social Sciences Replication Project), and Errington et al. 2021b (cancer biology). The passage states explicitly that reported success rates vary widely and depend on field, study selection, how replication is defined, and which success criterion is used (statistical significance vs effect size vs subjective judgement), so any single headline percentage should be read with caution.
  • Broadened the prevalence claim (replications as a share of published papers) beyond education by citing Makel et al. 2012 (psychology) alongside Perry et al. 2022, with wording accurate to both ("on the order of one percent or less"). Perry et al. is retained as a data point.

References (references.bib)

  • New, Crossref-verified: CamererEtAl2016 (doi 10.1126/science.aaf0918), CamererEtAl2018 (doi 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z). Inserted alphabetically.
  • Reused existing keys: OpenScienceCollab2015, KleinEtAl2014, ErringtonEtAl2021b, MakelEtAl2012, PerryEtAl2022.

Rendered cleanly; no broken citations ([?]/??/?@). Scope kept to the replication-rate passage; no chapter restructuring, no Figure 1.1 changes.

Note: references.bib is also touched by open PRs #35/#39 (different alphabetical regions; should auto-merge).

The replication-rate discussion previously rested on a single, narrow education paper (Perry et al. 2022). Added a short, caveated passage on replication success rates drawing on multiple large-scale projects across fields: Open Science Collaboration 2015 (psychology), Klein et al. 2014 (Many Labs), Camerer et al. 2016 (experimental economics), Camerer et al. 2018 (Social Sciences Replication Project), and Errington et al. 2021b (cancer biology). The caveat notes that reported success rates vary by field, study selection, definition of replication, and success criterion (significance vs effect size vs subjective judgement). Also broadened the prevalence claim beyond education by adding Makel et al. 2012 (psychology) alongside Perry et al. 2022.

New bib keys: CamererEtAl2016 (doi 10.1126/science.aaf0918) and CamererEtAl2018 (doi 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z), both Crossref-verified. Reused existing keys: OpenScienceCollab2015, KleinEtAl2014, ErringtonEtAl2021b, MakelEtAl2012, PerryEtAl2022.
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