feat(validation): unified leakage_probes module (PR 3.1)

.agent-plan.md

@@ -35,10 +35,9 @@ Goal: ship a best-in-class educational synthetic CRM lead-scoring dataset family
 - [x] PR 2.2: `check_exposure_monotonicity` updated for v5 — student is allowed to omit `BANNED_TABLES`, drop `BANNED_LEAD_COLUMNS` / `BANNED_OPP_COLUMNS`, and be a row-subset of instructor on snapshot-filtered event tables.
 
 ### Phase 3 — Release validation hardening
-- [ ] `leadforge/validation/{release_quality,leakage_probes,reporting}.py` (new)
-- [ ] `scripts/validate_release_candidate.py` (new)
-- [ ] Resolve numeric `TBD-*` bands in `v1_acceptance_gates.md`
-- [ ] `release/validation/validation_report.{json,md}` + figures auto-generated
+- [x] PR 3.1: `leadforge/validation/leakage_probes.py` (new) — unified leakage taxonomy. Subsumes the PR 2.1 `relational_leakage` module and broadens it to the full design-doc / acceptance-gates taxonomy: direct (banned columns / banned tables, generalised to accept caller-supplied banned sets), time-window (`probe_snapshot_window`, generalised over `(table, ts_col)` pairs), relational (`probe_deterministic_reconstruction`, `deterministic_relational_reconstruction`), split (`probe_split_id_overlap` for G6.1/G6.2, `probe_split_near_duplicates` via deterministic rounded-vector hashing for G6.3, `probe_split_label_drift` opt-in), model-realism (`probe_bonus_model_auc` opt-in, new opt-in `probe_id_only_baseline` for G5.3, `probe_feature_subset_baseline` for G5.1/G5.2). `PROBE_REGISTRY` is the single source of truth (probe → taxonomy / opt-in flag); meta-test asserts every module-level `probe_*` is registered. Two orchestrators: `run_all_probes` / `run_all_probes_on_dataframes` (structural, kept stable for `validate_bundle`) and new `run_split_probes` (split-level over `{split_name: DataFrame}`). `relational_leakage.py` deleted; every internal call site updated (`leadforge/validation/{bundle_checks,invariants}.py`, `leadforge/render/{manifests,relational_snapshot_safe}.py`, `leadforge/exposure/filters.py` doc, `scripts/probe_relational_leakage.py`); test file renamed `test_relational_leakage.py` → `test_leakage_probes.py` and grew 24 new tests for the new probes + meta-coverage. `RelationalLeakageError` retained (now spans every taxonomy) with `LeakageError` alias for the new umbrella name. `BUNDLE_SCHEMA_VERSION` unchanged (purely additive on the validator side); 1067/1067 tests pass; hash-determinism preserved (67/67 files identical); `scripts/probe_relational_leakage.py release/{intro,intermediate,advanced} --max-accuracy 0.65` exits 0 on every public tier.
+- [ ] PR 3.2: `leadforge/validation/{release_quality,reporting}.py` (new)
+- [ ] PR 3.3: `scripts/validate_release_candidate.py` (new); resolve numeric `TBD-*` bands in `v1_acceptance_gates.md`; `release/validation/validation_report.{json,md}` + figures auto-generated
 
 ### Phase 4 — Channel-signal audit + dataset card hardening
 - [ ] `scripts/audit_channel_signal.py` → `docs/release/channel_signal_audit.md`

leadforge/exposure/filters.py

@@ -32,11 +32,11 @@ class BundleFilter:
             must be projected onto the snapshot-safe shape before being
             written.  When ``True``, the bundle writer routes through
             :func:`leadforge.render.relational_snapshot_safe.to_dataframes_snapshot_safe`,
-            which strips :data:`leadforge.validation.relational_leakage.BANNED_LEAD_COLUMNS`
-            from ``leads``, :data:`~leadforge.validation.relational_leakage.BANNED_OPP_COLUMNS`
+            which strips :data:`leadforge.validation.leakage_probes.BANNED_LEAD_COLUMNS`
+            from ``leads``, :data:`~leadforge.validation.leakage_probes.BANNED_OPP_COLUMNS`
             from ``opportunities``, filters event tables per-lead by
             ``lead_created_at + snapshot_day``, and omits
-            :data:`~leadforge.validation.relational_leakage.BANNED_TABLES`
+            :data:`~leadforge.validation.leakage_probes.BANNED_TABLES`
             (``customers`` / ``subscriptions``) entirely.  When ``False``,
             the writer emits the full-horizon export.
     """

leadforge/render/manifests.py

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
 from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Any
 
 from leadforge.core.hashing import file_sha256
-from leadforge.validation.relational_leakage import (
+from leadforge.validation.leakage_probes import (
     BANNED_LEAD_COLUMNS,
     BANNED_OPP_COLUMNS,
     BANNED_TABLES,

leadforge/render/relational_snapshot_safe.py

@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@
 The ``research_instructor`` mode keeps using
 :func:`leadforge.render.relational.to_dataframes` for the full-horizon
 export.  The contract constants live in
-:mod:`leadforge.validation.relational_leakage` (validator owns the
+:mod:`leadforge.validation.leakage_probes` (validator owns the
 definition of "leakage"); this module re-exports them for ergonomics.
 """
 
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@
 
 import pandas as pd
 
-from leadforge.validation.relational_leakage import (
+from leadforge.validation.leakage_probes import (
     BANNED_LEAD_COLUMNS,
     BANNED_OPP_COLUMNS,
     BANNED_TABLES,

leadforge/validation/bundle_checks.py

@@ -21,15 +21,15 @@
 from leadforge.schema.features import LEAD_SNAPSHOT_FEATURES, redacted_columns_for
 from leadforge.schema.relationships import ALL_CONSTRAINTS
 from leadforge.validation.difficulty import check_difficulty
-from leadforge.validation.realism import check_realism
-from leadforge.validation.relational_leakage import (
+from leadforge.validation.leakage_probes import (
     BANNED_TABLES,
     LeakageReport,
     probe_banned_columns,
     probe_banned_tables,
     probe_deterministic_reconstruction,
     run_all_probes,
 )
+from leadforge.validation.realism import check_realism
 
 
 def validate_bundle(bundle_root: Path, *, include_realism: bool = True) -> list[str]:
@@ -311,7 +311,7 @@ def _check_relational_leakage(root: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any]) -> list[str]
     when ``snapshot_day`` is unavailable, with an explicit error
     surfaced so the gap is visible.
 
-    Each :class:`~leadforge.validation.relational_leakage.LeakageFinding`
+    Each :class:`~leadforge.validation.leakage_probes.LeakageFinding`
     is rendered as one error string, keeping the existing
     ``validate_bundle`` contract (return list of strings, empty = pass).
     """
@@ -354,10 +354,10 @@ def _read_relational_tables(root: Path) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]:
     """Read every public + banned-table parquet under ``<root>/tables/``.
 
     Mirrors the read logic in
-    :func:`leadforge.validation.relational_leakage.run_all_probes` but
+    :func:`leadforge.validation.leakage_probes.run_all_probes` but
     is reusable for the snapshot_day-missing path above.
     """
-    from leadforge.validation.relational_leakage import (
+    from leadforge.validation.leakage_probes import (
         BANNED_TABLES as _BANNED,
     )
 

leadforge/validation/invariants.py

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 from leadforge.core.hashing import file_sha256
 from leadforge.render.manifests import NON_DETERMINISTIC_MANIFEST_FIELDS
 from leadforge.schema.features import redacted_columns_for
-from leadforge.validation.relational_leakage import (
+from leadforge.validation.leakage_probes import (
     BANNED_LEAD_COLUMNS,
     BANNED_OPP_COLUMNS,
     BANNED_TABLES,