PR 6.1: notebook 01 refresh + notebook 02 relational feature engineering + G13.1 CI gate by shaypal5 · Pull Request #73 · leadforge-dev/leadforge

shaypal5 · 2026-05-07T04:40:30Z

Summary

Phase 6, first PR. Two notebooks land together with a new CI gate and helper test suite. Updated for the rev-2 + rev-3 self-review fixes (rev-3 = the Copilot pass; see revisions below).

Notebook 01 (refresh): release/notebooks/01_baseline_lead_scoring.ipynb actually reproduces the intermediate-tier metrics in release/validation/validation_report.json (G13.2) by using the same feature set as the report — drops only IDs and the label, mirrors release_quality._partition_columns. That means notebook 01 keeps total_touches_all (the documented leakage trap); a narrative cell calls this out explicitly and forward-points to notebook 03 (PR 6.2), which dissects what dropping the trap does to performance. Reports AUC / AP / P@K(50/100/200) / Brier / top_decile_rate (the metric the report tracks); assert_within_tolerance fails loud on drift before rendering the decile-lift bar chart and 10-bin reliability diagram. Hard-codes BUNDLE = Path("../intermediate") and asserts manifest.exposure_mode == "student_public" so the public-only path discipline (G13.3) is enforced inline. Targets are loaded at runtime from release/notebooks/_release_targets.json (audit-synced against validation_report.json); per-metric tolerances replace the original flat ±0.05 — AUC/Brier ±0.02, AP / top-decile ±0.05.
Notebook 02 (new): release/notebooks/02_relational_feature_engineering.ipynb loads the seven snapshot-safe public tables (customers / subscriptions are not in public bundles per BANNED_TABLES), asserts every timestamp <= lead_created_at + snapshot_day for all four event tables (with real min-headroom-under-cutoff readings, not a hardcoded literal), demonstrates four legal joins (touch-channel breakdown, account-level density fit on train leads only, sales-activity recency, train-only industry target encoding), trains LR + GBM on flat-baseline-only and flat+relational features, and prints a 4-row metric panel + delta panel. Drops the leakage trap so the relational lift attribution stays clean (different goal from notebook 01: this notebook is teaching feature engineering, not reproducing the report). Pinned via assert_within_tolerance on the four model AUCs and the headline GBM(eng) − GBM(flat) lift, plus a sign-aware assert lift > 0. Honest takeaway cell frames the +0.0147 AUC lift as suggestive, not conclusive — the cross-seed gbm_auc spread on this bundle is ~0.027.
Helpers + tests: release/notebooks/_notebook_utils.py ships inside the public bundle alongside the parquet tables — Kaggle/HF consumers download both together, so the notebooks can't depend on leadforge being installed. Provides precision_at_k and top_decile_rate (mirror release_quality byte-for-byte; locked in by mirror tests) and assert_within_tolerance (hardened against silent-pass paths: non-finite observed/target fail loudly; per-metric tolerance maps must declare every key in target — missing entries raise instead of defaulting to +inf). 18 unit tests under tests/release/notebooks/test_notebook_utils.py cover ties, invalid-k, per-metric vs scalar tolerances, missing keys, label propagation, multi-failure aggregation, extra-observed-key tolerance, NaN/inf failure modes, and the two release_quality mirror tests.
CI gate (G13.1): new [notebooks] extra in pyproject.toml (nbclient, nbformat, scikit-learn, matplotlib) keeps the dev install lean. New notebooks job in .github/workflows/ci.yml installs [dev,scripts,notebooks], regenerates the intermediate public bundle via python scripts/build_public_release.py release --tier intermediate (only tier the notebooks need; new flag), and runs tests/release/notebooks/test_execute_notebooks.py — a parametrised nbclient end-to-end execution gated on bundles-present (matches test_package_* skip pattern).
Builders: scripts/build_release_notebook_{01,02}.py (sharing scripts/_release_notebook_common.py) are nbformat-driven one-shot builders so notebook source stays reviewable in the diff (instead of hand-edited JSON). Cell IDs are deterministic (cell_NNN) so re-running the builder produces a byte-identical .ipynb. Each builder accepts --out PATH so the byte-stability test can build into tmp_path rather than mutate the committed file. Audit-artifact-sync is enforced by tests/scripts/test_release_notebook_builders.py, which builds twice into tmp_path and diffs against the committed file (no working-tree mutation, parallel-safe under pytest-xdist). Each builder shells out to ruff format on its emitted file so builder output and the project's pre-commit hook agree byte-for-byte.

Per-file ruff ignore for S101 on release/notebooks/**/*.ipynb (G13 contract asserts are deliberate) and for E501 on scripts/build_release_notebook_*.py (dedented heredocs render as notebook content; 100c is the wrong yardstick).

Revisions

rev-1 — initial drop (notebook 01 dropped the trap; flat ±0.05 tolerance; nondeterministic cell IDs; one builder per file).
rev-2 (self-review pass) — folded in the brutal self-review I posted on this PR before requesting human review. Fixes: deterministic cell IDs, real min-headroom receipt in notebook 02 cell 6, account_density fit on train leads only, notebook 02 metric gate, per-metric tolerances, JSON-loaded targets + top_decile_rate swap, audit-sync test, precision_at_k mirror test, builder de-duplication, industry redundancy fix, --tier filter on build_public_release.py, builder rename (drop _ prefix), .values → .to_numpy(), broken cross-references rewritten as plain text, the agent-plan + PR description rewritten to actually match the code.
rev-3 (Copilot pass) — folded in Copilot's six review threads: builders accept --out PATH so the byte-stability test never touches the committed file (race-safe and worktree-safe under interrupted runs); assert_within_tolerance rejects non-finite values and incomplete per-metric tolerance maps instead of silently passing; new top_decile_rate mirror test (parallel to precision_at_k); 4 new tests covering NaN/inf observed, NaN target, and missing-tolerance-key failure modes; agent-plan + PR body brought back into sync (this rewrite).

Acceptance gate results on this branch (rev-3 head)

ruff check . / ruff format --check . — clean
mypy leadforge/ — clean (82 source files)
pytest — 1255 passed, 5 skipped (publish-extra-gated HF/Kaggle round-trips)
python scripts/probe_relational_leakage.py release/{intro,intermediate,advanced} --max-accuracy 0.65 — 0/3 paths flag rate on every tier
python scripts/verify_hash_determinism.py — PASS 67/67
python scripts/validate_release_candidate.py --no-rebuild — PASS, 0 leakage findings
BUNDLE_SCHEMA_VERSION — unchanged at 5 (no bundle-shape changes in this PR)

Test plan

CI lint/typecheck/tests jobs pass on Python 3.11 + 3.12.
CI notebooks job runs the new gate end-to-end (regenerate intermediate bundle via --tier intermediate → execute both notebooks → tolerance assertions hold).
pip install -e ".[notebooks]" works on a clean Python 3.11+ env.
Open both notebooks in Jupyter Lab from release/notebooks/ cwd; "Run All" succeeds; output cells match committed metrics within tolerance.
Self-review on the diff (followed by Copilot pass; see revisions above).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…ing + G13.1 CI gate Refreshes ``release/notebooks/01_baseline_lead_scoring.ipynb`` and adds ``release/notebooks/02_relational_feature_engineering.ipynb``, the first two notebooks of the Phase 6 sequence. Both ship inside the public bundle alongside the parquet tables (Kaggle/HF consumers download them together), so they import a sibling ``_notebook_utils.py`` rather than relying on the ``leadforge`` package being installed. Notebook 01 (refresh) — Reproduces ``release/validation/validation_report.md`` intermediate-tier metrics within +/-0.05 (G13.2): trains LR + HistGBM on the public ``intermediate`` bundle, reports AUC / AP / P@K(50/100/200) / Brier, drops the documented ``total_touches_all`` leakage trap (still mentions it for pedagogy + forward-points to notebook 03), then calls ``assert_within_tolerance`` to fail loud on drift before rendering the decile-lift bar chart and 10-bin reliability diagram. Hard-codes ``BUNDLE = Path("../intermediate")`` and asserts ``manifest.exposure_mode == "student_public"`` so the public-only path discipline (G13.3) is enforced inline. Notebook 02 (new) — Loads the seven snapshot-safe public tables (``customers`` / ``subscriptions`` are not in public bundles per ``BANNED_TABLES``), asserts every ``timestamp <= lead_created_at + snapshot_day`` for all four event tables, demonstrates four legal joins (touch-channel breakdown, account-level density, sales-activity recency, train-only industry target encoding), trains LR + GBM on flat-baseline-only and flat+relational features, and prints a 4-row metric panel + delta panel. The honest takeaway cell quotes G7.4.4: GBM(eng)-GBM(flat) is the headline lift, GBM(eng)-LR(flat) is still slightly negative, consistent with the v1 finding that flat-CSV LR is hard to beat. Helpers + tests: - ``release/notebooks/_notebook_utils.py``: ``precision_at_k`` (stable argsort, mirrors ``release_quality._precision_at_k``), ``top_decile_rate``, ``assert_within_tolerance`` (per-metric or scalar tolerance, aggregates failures). Imported by both notebooks via ``sys.path.insert(0, str(Path.cwd())); from _notebook_utils import ...``. - ``tests/release/notebooks/test_notebook_utils.py``: 12 unit tests on the helpers (loaded via ``importlib.util`` since the module isn't on the package import path). - ``tests/release/notebooks/test_execute_notebooks.py``: parametrised nbclient end-to-end execution of both notebooks, gated on the public release bundles being on disk (matches ``test_package_*`` skip pattern). CI wiring (G13.1): - ``[notebooks]`` extra in ``pyproject.toml`` (nbclient, nbformat, scikit-learn, matplotlib) -- keeps the dev install lean while letting the dedicated CI job run the gate. - New ``notebooks`` job in ``.github/workflows/ci.yml`` that installs ``[dev,scripts,notebooks]``, regenerates the public release bundles via ``scripts/build_public_release.py`` (~6 s wall clock), then runs the nbclient execution test. Builders: - ``scripts/_build_release_notebook_01.py`` and ``_build_release_notebook_02.py`` are nbformat-driven one-shot builders so notebook source stays reviewable in the PR diff (instead of hand-edited JSON). Each builder shells out to ``ruff format`` on its emitted file, so the builder output and pre-commit hook agree byte-for-byte (preserves the audit-artifact-sync invariant PR 4.1 / 5.1 / 5.2 established). Per-file ruff ignore for E501 because dedented heredoc lines render as notebook content (markdown tables, print-statement output) where 100c is the wrong yardstick. Acceptance results on this branch: - ruff check . / ruff format --check . -- clean - mypy leadforge/ -- clean (82 source files) - pytest -- 1246 passed, 5 skipped (publish-extra-gated) - ``probe_relational_leakage`` on intro/intermediate/advanced -- 0/3 paths flag rate on every tier - ``verify_hash_determinism`` -- PASS 67/67 - ``validate_release_candidate --no-rebuild`` -- PASS, 0 leakage findings - ``BUNDLE_SCHEMA_VERSION`` unchanged at 5 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Marks notebook 01 refresh and notebook 02 (relational feature engineering) done; leaves 03 (leakage + time windows) and 04 (lift / calibration / value ranking) plus the adversarial-framing artefacts (issue templates, break-me guide, v2 decision log) for later PRs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…only joins, JSON-loaded targets Folds in the brutal self-review I posted on this PR before it goes to human review. Highlights: HIGH severity - **Builders are now byte-stable.** Cell IDs are assigned deterministically in ``scripts/_release_notebook_common.assemble_notebook`` (was ``nbformat.v4.new_*_cell``'s random UUID), and a new ``tests/scripts/test_release_notebook_builders.py`` runs each builder twice + diffs against the committed ``.ipynb``. The audit-artifact-sync invariant the docstring already advertised is now actually enforced — the test would have caught the previous revision's per-run diff. - **Snapshot-safe verification cell prints a real number.** The previous cell computed ``max_offset_days`` and threw it away, then printed a hardcoded ``(max offset 0.0 days)`` literal in every row. Replaced with ``min headroom under cutoff: {min_headroom_days:6.2f} days`` — formatted from ``(cutoff - timestamp).min()``. On the as-shipped intermediate bundle the receipt now reveals 735 events that land exactly on the cutoff (headroom 0.00 days), which is a real and teachable property of the data. - **``account_density`` is fit on train leads only.** Cell 4.2 was rolling up touches across train+test pooled — a leak path two cells above the train-only target encoding that loudly avoided the same mistake. Now filters ``tch_with_acct`` to ``train["lead_id"]`` before the groupby; test rows in train-only-empty accounts fall back to 0 via fillna. - **Notebook 02 has a tolerance gate.** Pinned the four model AUCs (LR-flat / GBM-flat / LR-eng / GBM-eng) and the headline ``GBM(eng) - GBM(flat)`` lift to per-metric ±0.02 (±0.015 for the lift), plus a sign-aware ``assert lift > 0``. Without it, a future regression that flipped the lift negative would have passed the nbclient gate silently. - **Per-metric tolerances replace the flat ±0.05.** Notebook 01 now uses ±0.02 on AUC/Brier (cross-seed std is well under that) and ±0.05 on AP / top-decile (which have higher seed variance). - **Notebook 01 actually reproduces the validation report.** The previous revision dropped ``total_touches_all`` (the leakage trap) while the report's panel keeps it — the metrics differed by ~0.03 on GBM AUC and the ±0.05 tolerance was hiding the discrepancy. Notebook 01 now keeps the trap (matches ``release_quality._partition_columns``) with explicit narrative + forward-pointer to notebook 03; notebook 02 drops the trap and explains why (relational lift attribution stays clean). MED severity - **``release/notebooks/_release_targets.json``** is the new source of truth for cross-seed-median targets. Notebook 01 loads it at runtime (no more hardcoded constants) and a new ``tests/release/notebooks/test_release_targets_match_report.py`` asserts byte equality against ``release/validation/validation_report.json``'s ``tiers.<tier>.medians``. Drift now fails CI. Discovered along the way: the previous ``lr_precision_at_100: 0.59`` constant wasn't even *in* the validation report — the report's ranking metric is ``top_decile_rate``. Notebook 01 now computes and gates ``top_decile_rate`` (matches the report). - **``precision_at_k`` mirror test.** Asserts ``_notebook_utils.precision_at_k`` agrees with ``release_quality._precision_at_k`` over random + tied-score fixtures, locking the docstring claim in code. - **Builder duplication eliminated.** ``scripts/_release_notebook_common.py`` hosts ``md`` / ``code`` / ``assemble_notebook`` / ``write_notebook`` (incl. the deterministic-ID assignment and the ``ruff format`` subprocess); each per-notebook builder shrinks to imports + cell list + one ``main()``. - **Industry redundancy fixed.** The ``+rel`` pipelines drop the raw ``industry`` categorical so LR no longer sees one-hot industry *and* its train-only target encoding for the same column. - **Honest takeaway softened.** +0.0147 AUC framed as "suggestive, not conclusive" with a pointer to PR 6.2's seed-sweep notebook 04 + the cross-seed gbm_auc spread (0.027) for context. - **ΔBrier sign convention** spelled out under the delta panel. LOW severity - **Builder rename.** ``scripts/_build_release_notebook_*.py`` → ``scripts/build_release_notebook_*.py`` (drops the leading underscore that's inconsistent with every other script in ``scripts/``). - **CI builds only ``intermediate``.** ``build_public_release.py`` got a ``--tier`` filter; the notebooks job uses ``--tier intermediate``, saving 3 redundant bundle generations per CI run. - **Whitespace + idiom cleanups.** Fixed ``[[ "lead_id"`` extra space; replaced ``.values`` (pandas-deprecated) with ``.to_numpy()`` in both notebooks. - **Broken cross-references** to PR 6.2 / 6.3 / break_me_guide.md rewritten as plain-text "(coming in PR 6.x)" caveats — no link syntax to non-existent files. Verification on this branch: - ``ruff check . / ruff format --check .`` — clean - ``mypy leadforge/`` — clean (82 source files) - ``pytest`` — 1250 passed, 5 skipped (publish-extra-gated) - ``probe_relational_leakage`` on intro/intermediate/advanced — 0/3 paths flag rate on every tier - ``verify_hash_determinism`` — PASS 67/67 - ``validate_release_candidate --no-rebuild`` — PASS, 0 leakage findings - ``BUNDLE_SCHEMA_VERSION`` unchanged at 5 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Copilot

Pull request overview

Note

Copilot was unable to run its full agentic suite in this review.

Adds a CI “notebook execution” gate and supporting utilities/tests to keep the public release notebooks reproducible, byte-stable, and aligned with the published validation metrics.

Changes:

Introduce notebook builders + shared builder scaffolding to generate deterministic, reviewable .ipynb artifacts.
Add release/notebooks/_notebook_utils.py plus unit tests and audit-sync tests for pinned targets.
Add a GitHub Actions notebooks job, plus a --tier option to build only the needed bundle for CI.

Reviewed changes

Copilot reviewed 15 out of 17 changed files in this pull request and generated 6 comments.

Show a summary per file

File	Description
tests/scripts/test_release_notebook_builders.py	Verifies notebook builders produce byte-identical notebooks and match committed artifacts.
tests/release/notebooks/test_release_targets_match_report.py	Ensures `_release_targets.json` stays in sync with `validation_report.json` medians.
tests/release/notebooks/test_notebook_utils.py	Unit tests for notebook helper utilities (precision@k, top-decile rate, tolerance gate).
tests/release/notebooks/test_execute_notebooks.py	End-to-end nbclient execution test for release notebooks.
scripts/build_release_notebook_01.py	Builder script emitting notebook 01 content deterministically.
scripts/build_release_notebook_02.py	Builder script emitting notebook 02 content deterministically.
scripts/build_public_release.py	Adds `--tier` flag to build only a selected bundle (used by CI notebooks job).
scripts/_release_notebook_common.py	Shared notebook builder helpers, deterministic cell IDs, and ruff-format step.
release/notebooks/_release_targets.json	Pins notebook 01 targets (audited against validation report JSON).
release/notebooks/_notebook_utils.py	Notebook-local metrics + tolerance assertion helpers (no package dependency).
release/notebooks/01_baseline_lead_scoring.ipynb	Refreshed committed notebook 01 artifact (repro gate + plots).
release/notebooks/02_relational_feature_engineering.ipynb	New committed notebook 02 artifact (relational FE + lift panel + gate).
pyproject.toml	Adds `[notebooks]` optional dependencies and per-file ruff ignores for notebooks/builders.
.github/workflows/ci.yml	Adds `notebooks` job to build bundle and execute notebooks.
.agent-plan.md	Updates project plan entry for PR 6.1 deliverables.

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…rate mirror, doc/code alignment Folds in all six unresolved Copilot review threads on this PR. C1 — ``--out`` flag on the notebook builders (was: byte-stability test mutated the committed file in place). Both builders now expose ``--out PATH`` via a shared ``_release_notebook_common.builder_arg_parser``; ``tests/scripts/test_release_notebook_builders.py`` builds twice into ``tmp_path`` and diffs against the committed file. Side effect: the test is now safe under pytest-xdist parallel execution and an interrupted run can no longer leave a corrupted ``release/notebooks/<name>.ipynb``. C2 — ``assert_within_tolerance`` rejects silent-pass paths (was: NaN observed/target slipped through because ``NaN > tol`` is ``False``; per-metric tolerance maps missing keys defaulted to ``+inf``, disabling the gate for those metrics). Both paths now fail with clear messages; the docstring describes the contract. C3 — ``top_decile_rate`` gets the mirror test ``precision_at_k`` already had. Both already use the same ``max(1, int(round(n * 0.1)))`` rule as ``release_quality._top_decile_rate``, so no impl change — the test locks that in across small-``n`` (banker's rounding) and the exact ``n_test = 750`` the intermediate tier ships. Drift between ``_notebook_utils`` and ``release_quality`` would now break CI. C4 — ``.agent-plan.md`` and the GitHub PR body both rewritten to match reality after rev-2: notebook 01 *keeps* the trap (matches ``release_quality._partition_columns``, so the G13.2 reproduction gate is meaningful); notebook 02 *drops* the trap (clean lift attribution). The PR body also documents the rev-1 → rev-2 → rev-3 revision history. C5 — ``test_execute_notebooks.py`` docstring rewritten: the gate flow loads ``_release_targets.json`` (audit-synced against ``validation_report.json``), not ``validation_report.md`` directly, and tolerances are per-metric (not flat ±0.05). C6 — four new tests in ``test_notebook_utils.py`` cover the failure modes C2 plugs: NaN observed → fail, inf observed → fail, NaN target → fail, missing-tolerance-key → fail. Acceptance gate results on this branch: - ruff check . / ruff format --check . — clean - mypy leadforge/ — clean (82 source files) - pytest — 1255 passed, 5 skipped (publish-extra-gated) - probe_relational_leakage on intro/intermediate/advanced — 0/3 paths flag rate on every tier - verify_hash_determinism — PASS 67/67 - validate_release_candidate --no-rebuild — PASS, 0 leakage findings - BUNDLE_SCHEMA_VERSION unchanged at 5 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Two real CI failures on the rev-3 commit, both fixed here: 1. **Lint job** failed with ``Would reformat: release/notebooks/02_relational_feature_engineering.ipynb``. CI's ``pip install ruff`` resolved to 0.15.12; my local was 0.11.13. Newer ruff has slightly different ``.ipynb`` cell formatting rules, so the committed notebook (formatted by 0.11.13) didn't pass 0.15.12's check. Fix: pin ``ruff==0.15.12`` in the CI lint job and rebuild ``02_relational_feature_engineering.ipynb`` against 0.15.12 so committed bytes match. Pin lives only in CI (not in ``pyproject.toml`` ``[dev]``) to keep contributor laptops flexible; when CI bumps, re-run the builder locally with the matching ruff and commit the updated ``.ipynb``. 2. **Notebooks job** failed with ``jupyter_client.kernelspec.NoSuchKernel: No such kernel named python3``. GitHub-hosted runners don't ship with any Jupyter kernelspecs; ``[notebooks]`` only pulled ``nbclient`` / ``nbformat``, neither of which provides a kernelspec. The execution test passes ``kernel_name="python3"`` so it needs an actual ``python3`` spec on disk. Fix: add ``ipykernel>=6.0`` to the ``[notebooks]`` extra, plus a CI step ``python -m ipykernel install --user --name python3`` that registers the spec before nbclient boots a kernel. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Tests (Python 3.11/3.12) failed on the previous push with ``ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'nbformat'``. The byte- stability test in ``tests/scripts/test_release_notebook_builders.py`` shells out to the builders, which import ``nbformat`` — but the main ``test`` CI job installs ``[dev]`` only, not ``[notebooks]``. Fix: - ``pytest.importorskip("nbformat")`` at the top of the byte-stability test, so the main ``test`` job skips it cleanly. - Have the dedicated ``notebooks`` CI job (which already installs ``[dev,scripts,notebooks]``) run both ``test_execute_notebooks.py`` and ``test_release_notebook_builders.py``. That keeps the byte- stability gate in CI without bloating the default dev install. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-05-07T06:01:50Z

pr-agent-context report:

No unresolved review comments, failing checks, or actionable patch coverage gaps were found on PR #73 in repository https://github.com/leadforge-dev/leadforge. Treat this PR as all clear unless new signals appear.

Run metadata:

Tool ref: v4
Tool version: 4.0.21
Trigger: commit pushed
Workflow run: 25478665327 attempt 1
Comment timestamp: 2026-05-07T06:01:01.688760+00:00
PR head commit: 10e791f42088d4eb053150907de5847af9c1e565

shaypal5 and others added 2 commits May 7, 2026 07:38

shaypal5 added this to the dataset: leadforge-lead-scoring-v1 milestone May 7, 2026

shaypal5 added type: feature New capability layer: validation validation/ invariants and checks layer: recipes recipes/ recipe assets and registry labels May 7, 2026

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Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings May 7, 2026 05:25

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Copilot AI reviewed May 7, 2026

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shaypal5 merged commit 918fc49 into main May 7, 2026
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shaypal5 deleted the feat/notebooks-baseline-and-relational branch May 7, 2026 06:19

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PR 6.1: notebook 01 refresh + notebook 02 relational feature engineering + G13.1 CI gate#73

PR 6.1: notebook 01 refresh + notebook 02 relational feature engineering + G13.1 CI gate#73
shaypal5 merged 6 commits into
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