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Open-Source Signal Intelligence Platform

Early Anomaly Detection from News, Bets, Shipping & Geo-Economic Signals

Goal: Build an open-source, real-time signal intelligence system that detects early anomalies across news, prediction markets, shipping flows, and geo-economic data — inspired by Bloomberg Terminal, but open, modular, and research-driven.


🚀 Project Vision

Financial markets move before prices move.

This project aims to detect early, non-obvious signals hidden in:

  • News sentiment shifts
  • Prediction market odds (election, policy, conflict)
  • Shipping & oil tanker movement
  • Geo-statistical anomalies
  • Macro narrative changes

The platform aggregates heterogeneous data sources, applies statistical + ML-based anomaly detection, and surfaces actionable signals before they appear in traditional market indicators.


🧠 Core Ideas

  • Markets are driven by information diffusion, not just fundamentals
  • Early signals appear in alternative data before price action
  • Cross-domain correlation (news + shipping + bets) increases signal strength
  • Open research tooling beats closed black-box indicators

🧩 Data Sources (Planned)

📰 News & Media

  • Reddit (finance, geopolitics, macro subreddits)
  • News APIs (global & regional)
  • Social narrative velocity & sentiment drift

🎯 Prediction Markets

  • Kalshi (macro, policy, elections)
  • Betting odds as probabilistic signals
  • Sudden probability regime changes

🚢 Shipping & Commodities

  • Oil tanker movement & port congestion
  • AIS-derived trade flow anomalies
  • Energy logistics stress signals

🌍 Geo-Statistics

  • Trade disruptions
  • Regional instability indicators
  • Macro supply-chain stress metrics

🧪 Signal Detection Engine

Techniques Used

  • Statistical anomaly detection (Z-score, EWMA, regime shifts)
  • NLP-based sentiment & topic modeling
  • Time-series change-point detection
  • Cross-signal correlation scoring
  • Noise filtering & false-positive suppression

Output

  • Early-warning alerts
  • Confidence-weighted signal scores
  • Visual dashboards (research-focused)

🏗️ Tech Stack (Planned)

Backend

  • Python
  • Pandas / NumPy
  • FastAPI
  • PostgreSQL / DuckDB

ML / NLP

  • Transformers (FinBERT / domain-adapted models)
  • Topic modeling
  • Time-series ML

Infra

  • Modular pipelines
  • Offline-first design
  • Reproducible research notebooks

Frontend (Later Stage)

  • Research dashboards
  • Signal timelines
  • Correlation heatmaps

📊 Example Use Cases

  • Detect geopolitical risk before equity drawdowns
  • Identify energy supply shocks before oil price spikes
  • Track election-related macro volatility early
  • Monitor narrative-driven market regime shifts

🔬 Project Status

  • Research & architecture planning
  • Data ingestion pipelines
  • Sentiment & anomaly models
  • Cross-signal scoring engine
  • Dashboard & visualization
  • Public beta release

Target live version: End of year


🌐 Open Source Philosophy

This project is:

  • Research-first
  • Transparent
  • Modular
  • Designed for extensibility

Contributions, critiques, and research discussions are welcome.


📌 Disclaimer

This project is for research and educational purposes only.
It does not provide financial advice or trading recommendations.


👤 Author

Manthan Kumar
Research-focused developer working at the intersection of:

  • Quantitative finance
  • Alternative data
  • Signal intelligence
  • Applied machine learning

⭐ Why This Matters

Most market tools react.
This platform is built to anticipate.

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Early anomaly detection platform using news, prediction markets, shipping flows, and geo-economic signals for quant research and alternative data analysis.

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