A replication and analytical extension of the Financial Times graphic "Changing Fortunes" (Steven Bernard, FT), showing shifts in US median adjusted household income across 229 metropolitan areas between 1999 and 2014.
This project replicates a publication-quality Financial Times slope chart using R, then extends it with an analytical scatterplot that reveals relationships between income change and inequality metrics. The goal is both technical — matching the FT's visual style precisely — and analytical — adding insight beyond the original graphic.
The original graphic was published by the Financial Times based on data from the Pew Research Center ("The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground", 2015).
| File | Description |
|---|---|
Main_Script.Rmd & Main_Script.html |
Main R script: slope chart + US map + cowplot assembly |
Clean_Median_Data.csv |
Cleaned median income data (1999 & 2014) for 229 metros |
geocoded_data.csv |
Geocoded coordinates for metro areas (via OpenStreetMap) |
MiddleClassU_S_MetroAreas51216SupplementaryTables.xlsx |
Raw supplementary tables from Pew Research Center |
changing_fortunes_replication.png |
Final rendered output |
alternative_plot.png |
My alternative plot that also showcases the inequality dimension |
The final graphic combines three elements assembled with cowplot:
-
Slope Chart — Each line is a metropolitan area, connecting its 1999 and 2014 median income. Top 10 risers (blue), top 10 fallers (dark red), and Raleigh NC (gray highlight) are emphasized over muted background lines.
-
US Map — Dots placed at geocoded metro coordinates, color-coded by category, showing the geographic distribution of winners and losers.
-
Annotation Layer — Curved arrows with text labels (via
geomtextpath) pointing from the slope chart to map locations, replicating the FT's editorial annotation style.
- Color palette matches FT print style: muted beige for background metros,
#477FB0for risers,#9D2B4Dfor fallers - Open Sans font loaded via
sysfonts+showtextto match FT typography - Gradient opacity on background lines reduces visual noise without losing context — think of it like a concert crowd: you want to feel the mass without being distracted by individual faces
- Manual dotted gridlines replace ggplot defaults for finer control
- Curved text arrows (
geomtextpath) required a two-segment approach for the "Biggest loser" annotation to avoid label collision
Beyond replication, the project includes a quadrant scatterplot relating:
- X-axis: % change in median household income (1999–2014)\
- Y-axis: Gini coefficient (inequality measure)
This reveals that many metros with falling incomes also have high inequality — a pattern invisible in the original slope chart.
install.packages(c(
"tidyverse", "ggrepel", "maps", "sf", "usmap",
"ggtext", "cowplot", "geomtextpath",
"sysfonts", "showtext"
))R version 4.2+ recommended.
-
Pew Research Center — "The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground" (December 2015)
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/ -
Original graphic — Steven Bernard, Financial Times
-
Geocoding — OpenStreetMap via
tidygeocoder
- Clone the repository
- Place
Clean_Median_Data.csvandgeocoded_data.csvin the working directory - Open
Main_Script.Rmdand run top to bottom - Output renders to the RStudio Plots pane; export at ~3000×2400px for print quality
Several metro areas were incorrectly matched by the geocoder (e.g., matched cities outside the US with similar names). Manual coordinate corrections are applied in the script via a tribble lookup table — documented inline.
Data from the Pew Research Center is publicly available for research and educational use. The original FT graphic is the intellectual property of the Financial Times. This project is an independent academic replication exercise and is not affiliated with the FT.
Original graphic: Steven Bernard, Financial Times
Data: Pew Research Center
Replication: Tommaso Accornero — Academic Visualization Project