Add a Public231 fast-screen before full C1

.agents/skills/new-model-integration/SKILL.md

@@ -87,10 +87,22 @@ that: do not invent a C1 result. CPU contract tests are not a latency baseline.
 
 Further latency work stays on this model's draft branch. Run it under
 [optimize-remeasure-gate](../optimize-remeasure-gate/SKILL.md): paste the C1
-p50/p95, `device`, and `compute capability` first, and do not stack the next
-tip commit until that tip is remeasured with the same protocol on the same
-named hardware. Incomplete evidence is INCONCLUSIVE. Quality and contract
-checks stay green. Each tip states its RSI phase (bring-up/scheduling,
+p50/p95, `device`, and `compute capability` first. After that primary
+exists, smoke and the fast-screen run before another full C1. The screen
+compares the same request IDs against the primary SHA's own screen, not
+against the full-C1 pooled pair. Quotas are 10/10/8/8/6/16. A short bucket
+records `quota_shortfall` and is not filled from another bucket. 2048+ below
+16 is inconclusive and cannot early-DROP. StartLux Instant's measured
+screen primary is SHA `51f80ad681c8f7b1be9b22b5e700bef34e33534c`, p50
+19.112976267933846 ms, p95 73.46072793006897 ms, n=58 on L20X / sm_89.
+A model that has not been screened has no screen-primary pair. Do not copy
+Instant's screen pair or a full-C1 pooled pair into it. A clear
+regression is dropped there, with `dropped_at`, and is not a KEEP. Do not
+stack the next tip commit until that tip has been dropped by the screen or
+remeasured with full C1 on the same named hardware. Incomplete evidence is
+INCONCLUSIVE.
+Quality and contract checks stay green. Each tip states its RSI phase
+(bring-up/scheduling,
 parallelism/comms, kernel, or launch/post) and which alternatives were
 considered versus the primary; without that it is not merge-clean. Feed each
 delta back to the agent before the next edit.

.agents/skills/optimize-remeasure-gate/SKILL.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 ---
 name: optimize-remeasure-gate
-description: Gate continuous optimization after a measured Public231 C1 baseline, including Cloud Agent and coding-agent loops. Use when a new tip must not land until that tip is remeasured with the same protocol on the same recorded device and compute capability. Every paste includes those two fields. The documented production target is H200 / SM90. Each tip names its RSI phase and the primary change versus alternatives considered, or it is not merge-clean. Incomplete evidence is INCONCLUSIVE. The pull request stays draft until a separate owner yes.
+description: Gate continuous optimization after a measured Public231 C1 baseline, including Cloud Agent and coding-agent loops. Use when a new tip must not land until smoke passes and a fast-screen either drops a clear regression or the tip is remeasured with full C1 on the same recorded device and compute capability. Every paste includes those two fields. The documented production target is H200 / SM90. Each tip names its RSI phase and the primary change versus alternatives considered, or it is not merge-clean. Incomplete evidence is INCONCLUSIVE. A fast-screen cannot KEEP a tip. The pull request stays draft until a separate owner yes.
 ---
 
 # Optimize only against a remeasured tip
@@ -35,15 +35,16 @@ Those are the primary figures. Per-round values stay attached so a pooled
 number can be checked. A recalled or rounded figure, a single round, or a
 percentile averaged across rounds is not a baseline.
 
-## One tip, then remeasure
+## One tip, then screen, then full C1
 
 A tip is one optimization commit on the draft branch. Do not add another
-commit on top of it until that tip has its own Public231 C1 remeasure. The
-gate requires the same measurement protocol and the same named hardware as
-the baseline. It does not require the SKU to be H200, L20X, SM90, or sm_89.
+commit on top of it until that tip has either been dropped by the fast-screen
+or has its own full Public231 C1 remeasure. The full gate requires the same
+measurement protocol and the same named hardware as the baseline. It does not
+require the SKU to be H200, L20X, SM90, or sm_89.
 
-Same measurement protocol means warmup 5, concurrency 1, three measured
-rounds, the same manifest, and the same clock
+Same measurement protocol for that full remeasure means warmup 5, concurrency
+1, three measured rounds, the same manifest, and the same clock
 (`post_to_body_json_and_schema_validation`). Same named hardware means the
 same recorded `device` string and the same recorded `compute capability`.
 The remeasure SHA must be the tip SHA. A measurement of an older commit does
@@ -54,13 +55,99 @@ cache policy, thinking treatment, server shape). State any necessary
 difference. Do not reset the comparison by changing the clock, the quantile
 method, or the named hardware.
 
+## Fast-screen before full C1
+
+Follow [public231-c1](../public231-c1/SKILL.md). Smoke must pass before the
+screen. Run one fast-screen: seed 231, concurrency 1, warmup 5, bucket
+quotas 0–127:10, 128–255:10, 256–511:8, 512–1023:8, 1024–2047:6, 2048+:16
+(58 requests when every bucket is full). If a bucket has fewer prompts than
+its quota, take every prompt in that bucket and record `quota_shortfall`.
+Do not fill from another bucket and do not substitute another model's
+lengths. If 2048+ has fewer than 16, the screen is `inconclusive` and cannot
+early-DROP. Compare the tip's screen p50 and p95 to the primary SHA's own
+screen of those same request IDs on the same device, compute capability, and
+clock. Pass that directory with `--baseline-screen`. Do not pass full-C1
+pooled percentiles. `--baseline-p50-ms` and `--baseline-p95-ms` are refused.
+
+StartLux Instant's full-C1 pooled primary remains
+`51f80ad681c8f7b1be9b22b5e700bef34e33534c` (`51f80ad`), p50 7.338 ms, p95
+51.816 ms. That pair is not the screen baseline. Clef and pplx-decider keep
+the full-C1 primaries in their recipes and the latency leaderboard. Fill a
+screen-primary slot only from a completed `--fast-screen` whose decision is
+`screen_primary` on the primary SHA, same machine, same request IDs. A full-C1
+KEEP moves the full-C1 primary; it does not by itself fill this slot.
+
+StartLux Instant screen primary, hk2, quotas 10/10/8/8/6/16, 58/58 success,
+`evidence_complete` true, decision `screen_primary`, `quota_shortfall` `{}`:
+
+```text
+screen_primary_sha: 51f80ad681c8f7b1be9b22b5e700bef34e33534c
+screen_primary_p50_ms: 19.112976267933846
+screen_primary_p95_ms: 73.46072793006897
+n: 58
+bucket_counts: 0-127:10, 128-255:10, 256-511:8, 512-1023:8, 1024-2047:6, 2048+:16
+device: L20X
+compute capability: sm_89
+```
+
+The measuring client was `923c8c739bcaf3cc2b098f3cf373c2b547d2666c` plus a
+local-only 1024–2047 quota patch from 8 to 6. The remote tip may still have
+been on quota 8. Later screens use the committed n=58 quotas and do not
+need that patch. Artifacts:
+`~/experiments/2026-10-26-pr181-screen-primary/screen-primary-n58/`
+(`SCREEN_PRIMARY.json`, `fast-screen/`, `screen_ids.json`,
+`local-quota-patch.diff`). Do not write 7.338/51.816 as this screen
+primary. Do not type the screen percentiles; pass `--baseline-screen`.
+Clef and pplx-decider have no screen primary yet. Do not copy Instant's
+screen pair onto them.
+
+Early DROP only when both screen Δp50 and Δp95 are worse than that same-ID
+baseline. A metric is worse when its delta (tip minus baseline) is ≥ +2%
+of that baseline or ≥ +0.5 ms. Otherwise, including a mixed result, run
+full C1. The summary records `screen_primary`, `drop`, `full_c1`, or
+`inconclusive`. It does not record a KEEP.
+
+A `drop` is a regression. The artifact includes `dropped_at` in
+`fast_screen_drop.json` and on the summary. Do not run full C1. Do not
+stack the next commit on that tip. Do not adopt the screen p50/p95 as the
+next baseline. A negative screen delta is not a gain and is not a KEEP. An
+`inconclusive` screen stops the loop.
+
+KEEP, merge, and ready-for-review require the full C1 dual gate: pooled p50
+and pooled p95 both strictly lower, pooled 2048+ p95 strictly lower, and no
+quality collapse under the rules in the next section. The +2% / +0.5 ms
+band does not make a full-C1 tie a KEEP. hk2 contract smoke of client
+`d2fab1e08f231fe2e23540f3b25b2650cd416d09` against Instant served at
+`51f80ad681c8f7b1be9b22b5e700bef34e33534c` passed 4/4 with
+`evidence_complete` true. Artifacts are under
+`~/experiments/2026-10-26-pr181-screen-primary/primary/smoke/` on hk2.
+That client has no StartLux or CUDA diff versus `51f80ad`, and offline
+`tests/benchmarks` there were 109 OK. That smoke is not the screen primary.
+Offline MockTransport tests are not a review PASS. The Instant screen
+primary is the n=58 block above.
+
 ## INCONCLUSIVE stops the loop
 
 Mark the tip **INCONCLUSIVE** and do not stack the next commit when any of
 these are true:
 
 - the baseline p50/p95 were not recorded before the edit
-- fewer than three measured rounds finished
+- smoke did not pass before the latency screen
+- the fast-screen was skipped on a tip that already has a full-C1 primary
+- the screen baseline is a full-C1 pooled p50/p95, a typed percentile, or
+  different request IDs than `--fast-screen` just sampled
+- a short bucket was filled from another bucket, or 2048+ has fewer than 16
+  and the screen was treated as a DROP or as a screen primary
+- the fast-screen decision is `inconclusive`
+- a DROP has no `dropped_at`
+- a KEEP, a gain, or a new primary is claimed from fast-screen numbers
+- ready or review PASS is claimed from offline MockTransport output without
+  the hk2 contract smoke, or a screen-primary p50/p95 is filled from the
+  full-C1 pooled pair, or from a screen that has not been measured with
+  quotas 10/10/8/8/6/16
+- the fast-screen decision was `full_c1` but fewer than three measured
+  rounds finished
+- a completed `drop` is treated as a KEEP or as the next baseline
 - `evidence_complete` is not true, or warmup failed
 - any measured request failed, was incomplete, or was unattempted
 - `device` or `compute capability` is missing on the baseline or the tip
@@ -76,7 +163,8 @@ these are true:
 INCONCLUSIVE is not a win and not a regression. Do not drop failures, relax a
 tolerance, or add undeclared rounds to produce a preferred delta. A recorded
 `device` other than H200, or a `compute capability` other than SM90, is not
-by itself INCONCLUSIVE.
+by itself INCONCLUSIVE. A fast-screen `drop` is a regression. It is not
+INCONCLUSIVE, and it is not a reason to relax the rule that produced it.
 
 ## Quality and contract stay green
 
@@ -98,16 +186,23 @@ stack past it.
 Before the agent proposes the next change, give it this record:
 
 - baseline SHA, pooled p50, pooled p95, pass rate
-- tip SHA, pooled p50, pooled p95, pass rate
-- p50 and p95 delta (tip minus baseline), in milliseconds
+- tip SHA; pooled p50, pooled p95, and pass rate when full C1 ran
+- full-C1 p50 and p95 delta (tip minus baseline), in milliseconds, when
+  full C1 ran
 - clock basis, `device`, and `compute capability` for both sides
 - RSI phase, alternatives considered, and which change is primary
+- fast-screen decision (`screen_primary`, `drop`, `full_c1`, or
+  `inconclusive`), the request IDs and any `quota_shortfall`, `dropped_at` when the decision is
+  `drop`, and the screen p50/p95 deltas labeled as screen-only
 - verdict: improved, regressed, or INCONCLUSIVE
-- quality/contract result
+- quality/contract result when the path reached full C1 or a KEEP decision
 
-The agent uses that record as the next baseline only when the verdict is
-improved or regressed and the evidence is complete. An INCONCLUSIVE tip stays
-the head until it is fixed and remeasured, or until the tip is reverted.
+Improved is only a full-C1 KEEP. A `drop` verdict is regressed, and the
+screen numbers stay out of the next baseline. The agent uses a full-C1
+record as the next baseline only when the verdict is improved or regressed
+and the evidence is complete. An INCONCLUSIVE tip stays the head until it
+is fixed and remeasured, or until the tip is reverted. A dropped tip is
+reverted or left unstacked; the previous primary stays the baseline.
 
 ## RSI phase, or the tip is not merge-clean
 
@@ -127,8 +222,9 @@ fill in a missing phase.
 ## Draft, and a separate yes to merge
 
 Leave the pull request in draft through the loop. Do not mark it ready for
-review and do not merge it because a remeasure improved p50 or p95. Merge
-and ready-for-review each need a separate explicit yes from the owner.
+review and do not merge it because a remeasure improved p50 or p95, or
+because a fast-screen was not a drop. Merge and ready-for-review each need
+a separate explicit yes from the owner, and only after a full-C1 KEEP.
 Passing CI is not that yes. A tip that is not merge-clean on the RSI phase
 stays unmerged even when the owner has not yet been asked. Room posts of a
 delta follow the metrics-only rule in [public231-c1](../public231-c1/SKILL.md)