Skip to content

Fixes to agent portfolio forecasting capabilities#173

Merged
biegelk merged 8 commits intomainfrom
novel_units_forecasting
Dec 19, 2025
Merged

Fixes to agent portfolio forecasting capabilities#173
biegelk merged 8 commits intomainfrom
novel_units_forecasting

Conversation

@biegelk
Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

@biegelk biegelk commented Dec 19, 2025

This PR implements two significant updates to agents' capability to forecast future system portfolios and dispatch outcomes:

  • Replaces bugged algorithm for forecasting balance-of-system investment in new capacity to meet demand
  • Removes "fake units" approach to generating dispatch results

Forecasting balance-of-system investment

The previous logic for forecasting investment by the balance of system (i.e. all agents aside from the current agent) was previously bugged. This PR removes some faulty logic and simplifies the calculation to reduce endemic misprediction (the "3-year forecasting failure").

Forecasting dispatch outcomes for novel units

"novel unit": any unit type which does not currently exist in the system generation mix, but which is allowed to be selected for new construction by agents

Agents need some method of developing expectations about the market performance of novel units. Since they do not currently exist, running a dispatch calculation on the current system portfolio doesn't intrinsically produce data on how novel units would perform.

Previously, 1 unit per novel unit type would be added to the system portfolio mix as a dummy in order to directly simulate their market participation. This causes problems because it posits capacity additions which are not planned by anybody, artificially depressing the price-based capacity investment signal.

This PR removes this "fake units" approach. Currently, this means that novel units have 0 forecasted revenue, so they are never selected. New logic to replace this will be implemented in an upcoming PR.

@biegelk biegelk added bug Something isn't working enhancement New feature or request refactor Improvements, cleanup, and efficiency labels Dec 19, 2025
@biegelk biegelk merged commit 1040447 into main Dec 19, 2025
1 check passed
@biegelk biegelk deleted the novel_units_forecasting branch December 19, 2025 18:59
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

bug Something isn't working enhancement New feature or request refactor Improvements, cleanup, and efficiency

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant